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Flemington Race 7: Australian Cup 2000m

11/03/2016: Once Bow Creek saw daylight in the Group 2 Peter Young Stakes it was all over red rover as he sprinted away for a soft win. I cannot see why the extra 200 metres will stop him, as his breeding suggests, so he slots into the A position. Our Ivanhowe should have run second to Bow Creek and with the addition of extra ground and improved fitness he should run a bold race. The mare Fenway would have needed the second up run to Bow Creek and she will benefit from the effort. Any dampness in the track conditions will suit as well. Preferment needed his first up run in Sydney behind the mighty mare Winx in the Group 1 Chipping Norton Stakes and is another runner with a strong chance. He has won the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes at this track and distance and can handle the sting out of the ground. Rising Romance deserves more luck than she has had in her last two runs at this track and distance (held up, wide) and with only ten other runners to negotiate perhaps she can rocket down the outside for victory. A damp track won't harm her chances. This is quite a competitive race so go wide in the quaddie.

Flemington Race 7. Track Condition: GOOD (4). Weather: OCAST. RaceTime: AEDT 16:30, 12/03/2016

RACEMAPAustralian Cup 2000m
Front Runners (2) Mourinho, (9) Awesome Rock.
On Pacers (4) Fenway, (5) Sauvito.
Mid Fielders (1) Our Ivanhowe, (8) Happy Trails, (10) Preferment, (11) Bow Creek.
Get Back (3) Extra Zero, (6) Rising Romance, (7) Almoonqith.
PACE COMMENTS Although I suspect their respective stables do not want Mourinho or Awesome Rock to lead I don’t really see any other scenario. Both have the ability to ease to the front, drop anchor and amble along so why not? Even though I think the pace might be just average this is too good a field to start knocking even the back markers so just forget about pace and concentrate on the class factor.
CHANCESAustralian Cup 2000mOrderMargin
Bow Creek PLUS: Strong finish last start, breeding suggests distance no issue, good and soft track winner. A 0
  MINUS: Nil.    
Our Ivanhowe PLUS: Unlucky to Bow Street first up, distance definitely no issue, like a wet track. B 0.5
  MINUS: Second up this distance at this level.    
Fenway PLUS: Honest second up to Bow Street, has second to Politeness in wet at Group 1 level, distance no issue. C 1
  MINUS: Mare versus males.    
Preferment PLUS: C Waller visits, Group 1 winner this track and distance, two wins from four runs this distance. D 1.25
  MINUS: Second up this distance at this level.    
Rising Romance PLUS: Held up first up, unlucky last two track runs, fitness level third up strong. E 1.75
  MINUS: Gets back and finds trouble however small field size helps.    
Quadrella Race# Flemington 12 March 2016
Flemington 6 Lexus Newmarket Handicap 1200m
Flemington 7 Australian Cup 2000m
Flemington 8 Schweppervescence Trophy 1600m
Flemington 9 My Kitchen Rules Stakes 1400m
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EXOTICS Australian Cup 2000m
Exacta

A: 5 6

B: 2 4 5 6 9 10 11

Trifecta

A: 5 6

B: 2 4 5 6 9 10 11

C: 2 4 5 6 9 10 11

First Four

A: 5 6

B: 2 4 5 6 9 10 11

C: 2 4 5 6 9 10 11

D: 2 4 5 6 9 10 11

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