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Flemington Race 7: Australian Guineas 1600m

06/03/2015: Third up, racing mid field off a solid enough pace should suit Kermadec, one from one at the track and distance, perfectly. His run last start when just nutted by Hallowed Crown and Sweynesse, two very good horses, had to be seen to be believed. If he had received a rails run as opposed to going the widest in the straight he strolls in. I risked Wandjina last start first up and at the fifty metre mark I was right but gee whiz he showed serious fighting ability to regain the lead and score. He will get a lovely trail just on the pace and only has to run up to his Caulfield Guineas placing at this distance to be a genuine chance. I have doubts about Stratum Star at the distance but in fairness it took Kermedec to just beat him at this track and distance and he may have had enough last preparation when thrashed by the enigmatic Petrology. Rommel is the new boy on the block and his win over Galaxy Pegasus was strong as was his form in WA against Disposition who really stretched Wandjina last run. Don’t sell Tasmanian star Admiral short as his defeat of The Cleaner was no fluke even though the runner up might have needed the run.The seven day back up and rise in distance is my main concern, just. I give place chances to Merion (flat last week but third up today), Fontein Ruby (now ready), Petrology and Sweet And Speedy. A top race.

Flemington Race 7. RaceTime: AEDT 16:30, 07/03/2015

RACEMAP(Barriers)
Front Runners (2) Fontein Ruby, (10) Wandjina.
On Pacers (4) Stratum Star, (5) Admiral, (6) Rommel, (16) Lucky Liberty.
Mid Fielders (3) Minnesinger, (7) Alpine Eagle, (8) Kermedec, (12) Merion, (13) Firehouse Rock, (14) Sweet And Speedy, (16) Testashadow.
Get Back (1) Petrology, (9) Manapine, (11) Chivalry.
PACE COMMENTS The pace should be reasonable with any of my front runners likely to hop to a clear lead and try to control the race. If you fancy a back runner be confident they have a reasonably fair chance of running on out wide.
CHANCESPlus and Minus FactorsOrderMargin
Kermadec PLUS: One from one track and distance, two from five good, ready third up, N Rawiller C Waller combination. A 0
  MINUS: Gets back.    
Wandjina PLUS: Leads or on pace, fighting win first up, B Prebble aboard, 3rd Caulfield Guineas this distance. B 0.75
  MINUS: Distance this level.    
Stratum Star PLUS: Kermadec form line, ready third up. C 1
  MINUS: Distance this level.    
Rommel PLUS: Disposition form line strong through Moriarty Group1 win, strong last run. D 1.25
  MINUS: Class rise.    
Admiral PLUS: Two from two distance, five wins from seven good tracks, beat The Cleaner last run. E 1.75
  MINUS: Class rise.    
RISK HORSES 
RISKY Chivalry (possibly over rated and impossible to follow), Alpine Eagle (class rise, seven day backup off very hard run), Firehouse Rock (just behind Alpine Eagle), Lucky Liberty (just enough of class rise to bother), Minnesinger (ditto Firehouse Rock).
OUTCLASSED Rods Opinion, Manapine.
Quadrella Race# Flemington 7 March 2015
Flemington 6 Francess Tressady Stakes 1400m
Flemington 7 Australian Guineas 1600m
Flemington 8 Ata Bob Hoysted Handicap 1000m
Flemington 9 Hong Kong Jockey Club Trophy BM90 1800m
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