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Flemington Race 7: Australian Guineas 1600m

03/03/2016: I am a huge fan of Mahuta and his fighting ability and I am sticking like glue. He receives the gun run behind the crack New Zealand three year old Xtravagant. If Xtravagant is the next Sunline, as has been stated, I am in trouble but I have seen many, many New Zealand horse come to Australia with massive reputations. Some have starred, some have flopped. I am slotting the Perth filly Perfect Reflection into the C position as she was, in my opinion, ridden poorly last start and may well have won The Vanity. As it turned out she was officially held up for a run and when she finally got clear the race was over. Tarzino only needs a solid pace, which I expect, to be a serious chance with fifty metres to run. He clearly needed the first up run and we know Flemington is going to suit much better than Caulfield. Jameka's first up run was terrific and with that run under belt I am expecting a strong run from the VRC Oaks winner.

Flemington Race 7. Track Condition: GOOD (3). Weather: FINE. RaceTime: AEDT 16:30, 05/03/2016

RACEMAPAustralian Guineas 1600m
Front Runners (3) Xtravagant, (9) Mahuta.
On Pacers (6) River Wild, (7) Sailing By, (12) Jameka, (14) Snoopy.
Mid Fielders (2) Perfect Reflection, (5) Ready For Victory, (10) Risque, (11) Bon Aurum, (13) Tivaci.
Get Back (1) Vanbrugh, (4) Tarzino, (8) Sovereign Nation, (15) Tulsa, (16)Palentino.
PACE COMMENTS Reports from New Zealand suggest Xtravagant jumps like a greyhound from the barriers and if that’s correct the connections of Mahuta will be beside themselves with happiness as they will take the sit. Just off the pace we find River Wild, Snoopy, Sailing By and Jameka easing back to survey the scene ahead. Basically, I cannot dismiss the chances of any runner as it seems the pace will be solid.
CHANCESAustralian Guineas 1600mOrderMargin
Mahuta PLUS: Has won his last six races, unbeaten at the distance, five good track wins from seven attempts, a real racehorse. A 0
  MINUS: Nil.    
Xtravagant PLUS: Five wins from eight career runs, leads like Vo Rogue apparently, four wins from four good track runs, distance winner. B 0.5
  MINUS: NZ form?    
Perfect Reflection PLUS: Has beaten Delicacy, unlucky first up, distance and track conditions no issue, five wins from six career runs. C 1
  MINUS: Gets back, filly versus males but has weight allowance.    
Tarzino PLUS: Flemington horse, huge first up run, pace will suit, all conditions suit as well as distance second up. D 1.25
  MINUS: Gets back.    
Jameka PLUS: Two Flemington wins, D Oliver aboard, always runs well at this top lvel, genuine race mare. E 1.5
  MINUS: Gets back, filly versus males but has weight allowance.    
Quadrella Race# Flemington 5 March 2016
Flemington 6 ATA Bob Hoysted Handicap 1000m
Flemington 7 Australian Guineas 1600m
Flemington 8 Frances Tressady Stakes 1400m
Flemington 9 Antler Luggage Trophy BM90 1800m
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EXOTICS Australian Guineas 1600m
Exacta

A: 1 2 5

B: 1 2 5 13 14

Trifecta

A: 1 2 5

B: 1 2 5 13 14

C: 1 2 5 13 14

First Four

A: 1 2 5

B: 1 2 5 13 14

C: 1 2 5 13 14

D: 1 2 5 11 13 14 15 16

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