Today's Big Bets 0
Amount Bet Today $0
Most Bet Today

Flemington Race 7: AVHPA Vic Trophy 1600m

11/12/2015: This is my skinniest leg of the quadrella. Tashbeeh has the brilliant formline around the race won by Malaguerra which has produced several wins since and being defeated by the bold front running Charmed Harmony is a plus as well. That's not mentioning his defeat of Burning Front who won his next start. If his twenty eight day break hasn't dulled him Tashbeeh looks a standout (look at that terrific 3kg claim, too) but I am always on the alert for fitness clouds and there could be one. Belorum was unlucky behind the heavily backed Golden Dane, who also came through the Malguerra race, when checked and held up last start in a race where he might have felt the pinch after his 29 day break. His distance statistics don't look good but there have been a couple of excuse runs involved so let's give him his chance in this race and watch him carefully for future 1600m races. Orion handles this distance beautifully and he does have win over Charmed Harmony three starts ago (distance might have been an issue for Charmed Harmony) which lines up well through Tasbeeh. The 3kg claim is a bonus.

Flemington Race 7. Track Condition: GOOD (3). Weather: FINE. RaceTime: AEDT 16:05, 12/12/2015

RACEMAPAVHPA Vic Trophy 1600m
Front Runners (3) The New Boy, (9) King's Dance, (11) Sadaqa.
On Pacers (4) Tashbeeh, (10) Oltre Finito.
Mid Fielders (1) Kingdom Of Dreams, (2) Turnitaround, (5) Orion, (6) Belorum, (7) Clemo.
Get Back (8) Priority Road, 12) Wrotham Heath.
PACE COMMENTS On most occasions I would expect The New Boy to lead however on their day King’s Dance and Sadaqa have been known to challenge for the lead. It doesn't matter who leads as the horse with the best run will be Tashbeeh which will find the jockey with a huge smile after a couple of hundred metres as he contemplates the size of his pay cheque. It wouldn't surprise to see Orion and Belorum to push up from mid field trying to take advantage of their good barriers. The horse with a big job ahead is Clemo as he normally drops back to almost last and I doubt if he can make up ground and beat home at least a couple of those ahead of him early.
CHANCESAVHPA Vic Trophy 1600mOrderMargin
Tashbeeh PLUS: Track contions, distance and Flemington are all suitable, Malaguerra Charmed Harmony form line very strong. A 0
  MINUS: 28 days break if unintentional.    
Belorum PLUS: Needed last run off 29 days when checked and held up, three good track wins, there are excuses for distance failures. B 0.5
  MINUS: Gets back a fraction    
Orion PLUS: Two wins and four quinella efforts from five distance runs, four good track wins. C 1
  MINUS: Nil.    
Quadrella Race# Flemington 12 December 2015
Flemington 6 Plenary Group Handicap 2000m
Flemington 7 AVHPA Vic Trophy 1600m
Flemington 8 Western Health Foundation Handicap 1200m
Flemington 9 Metricon Trophy 1700m
Go to Quaddie Picker
EXOTICS AVHPA Vic Trophy 1600m
Exacta

A: 1

B: 2 11

Trifecta

A: 1

B: 2 11

C: 2 4 7 8 11 12

First Four

A: 1

B: 2 11

C: 2 4 7 8 11 12

D: 2 4 7 8 11 12

Go to Exotics Picker
100% UP TO 5 BTC BONUS!