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Flemington Race 7: Black Caviar Lightning Stakes 1000m

19/02/2016: It's a no brainer selecting Chautauqua. There are reasons why he could fail (inside draw, possible damp track, gets back) but he is one of those horses that can run amazing sectionals. It's a toss of the coin for second for me between Terravista and Delectation and the coin fell for Terravista. I am unsure whether Exosphere is just a good horse, or a top class horse. On that basis Japonisme must be in the same boat. I am biting the bullet and am going to just take my ABC selections in the quaddie.

Flemington Race 7. Track Condition: GOOD (3). Weather: FINE. RaceTime: AEDT 16:05, 20/02/2016

RACEMAPBlack Caviar Lightning Stakes 1000m
Front Runners Nil.
On Pacers (3) Kinglike, (4) Va Pensiero, (5) Japonisme.
Mid Fielders (2) Chautauqua, (7) Delectation.
Get Back (1) Exosphere, (6) Terravista.
PACE COMMENTS Without any great confidence I suspect Kinglike and Va Pensiero will be equal leaders as I doubt the stable will push Japonisme early. As Chautauqua is fresh I suspect he will be a fraction keen early hence I have him mid field but if he was last early I would not be surprised. The pace will be pedestrian like early but just look at the class of runners. Any of the runners, bar Kinglike and Va Pensiero, could run amazing sectionals and come from the last so it's best to forget pace for this field.
CHANCESBlack Caviar Lightning Stakes 1000mOrderMargin
Chautauqua PLUS: Champion sprinter. A 0
  MINUS: Damp track will slow him down.    
Terravista PLUS: Ten wins from nineteen runs, two wet track wins a bonus against the champ. B 0.5
  MINUS: Gets back to almost last.    
Delectation PLUS: Beat Chautauqua in soft going last preparation. C 0.75
  MINUS: One win from five first up runs.    
Quadrella Race# Flemington 20 February 2016
Flemington 6 CS Hayes Stakes 1400m
Flemington 7 Black Caviar Lightning Stakes 1000m
Flemington 8 Ascot Racecourse Trophy 1400m
Flemington 9 Hong Kong Jockey Club Trophy 1200m
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EXOTICS Black Caviar Lightning Stakes 1000m
Exacta

A: 1

B: 2

Trifecta

A: 1

B: 2

C: 3

First Four

A: 1

B: 2

C: 3

D: 5 6

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