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Flemington Race 7: Chester Manifold Stakes 1400m

16/01/2016: The more times I study this race the stronger I feel Tried And Tired is definitely an each way special and almost a good thing! I don't really see Tudor and Decircles as winners over the distance at this level hence they weaken and if Mark Zahra waits and waits (and he is good at that) he surges to the lead at the 100 metre mark and it's catch me if you can thereafter. I have missed the $5.50 but $4.80 will do me as I have him at about $3.20. There is no doubt about the Durendal form line for Zupacharged and Sarajevo but are they good enough to overcome the easy run Tried And Tired will receive? General Groove is ready to improve this campaign. He only had two runs last time in so all must not have been well and in the campaign prior he was spelled after a flop in the Villiers, however he had two wins and a second to the smart Pornichet over 1500m. Like all the other chances he has to overcome Tried And True but if he does he is a very strong win chance.

Flemington Race 7. Track Condition: GOOD (3). Weather: FINE. RaceTime: AEDT 16:06, 16/01/2016

RACEMAPChester Manifold Stakes 1400m
Front Runners (2) Tudor, (6) Decircles.
On Pacers (8) Tried And Tired.
Mid Fielders (3) General Groove, (7) Dances On The Stars, (8) Zupacharged, (9) Sarajevo.
Get Back (1) Kareeming, (4) Noela's Choice.
PACE COMMENTS Is it Decircles or Tudor for the clear lead? I don't know but it will be one of the two and if both jockeys have been instructed to lead the pace will be on early. If not, the race is a jog and sprint home. I think it has to be that one jockey decides in the first fifty metres and eases back. They are both too experienced to ride any other way. On that score my race map favours Tried And Tired who will receive a sweet run and I can only imagine the grin on M Zahra's face six hundred metres from home. I don't think the midfielders or get back horses are going to win.
CHANCESChester Manifold Stakes 1400mOrderMargin
Tried And Tired PLUS: Perfect run off pace, distance and track conditions suitable. A 0
  MINUS: One win from ten at track.    
General Groove PLUS: Distance, track and track conditions no problems, second to Pornichet 1500m good enough for this. B 0.75
  MINUS: Pace of race as per Zupacharged and Sarajevo.    
Zupacharged PLUS: Durendal form line huge factor, track, distance and track conditions not an issue. C 1
  MINUS: Pace of race a real problem.    
Sarajevo PLUS: Finished next to Zupacharged equals Durendal form, forgive all raw distance failures as excuses reasonable. D 1.25
  MINUS: Pace an issue same as Zupacharged, one win from ten good track runs but excuse runs in there, be forgiving.    
Noela's Choice PLUS: Huge Standish run, winner of five races from eighteen runs, big improver or fluke run? E 1.5
  MINUS: Four wins in wet indicates wet tracker though Standish run on good, mare versus males, gets back to near last.    
Quadrella Race# Flemington 16 January 2016
Flemington 6 Inglis Dash 1100m
Flemington 7 Chester Manifold Stakes 1400m
Flemington 8 Piping Lane Handicap 2000m
Flemington 9 Tauto Handicap 1400m
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EXOTICS Chester Manifold Stakes 1400m
Exacta

A: 2

B: 5 6 8

Trifecta

A: 2

B: 5 6 8

C: 1 5 6 7 8

First Four

A: 2

B: 5 6 8

C: 1 5 6 7 8

D: 1 3 5 6 7 8 9

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