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Flemington Race 7: Galilee Series Final 2500m

10/04/2015: If form at close to today’s distance means anything I must select Oncidium Ruler who sat off the pace at his second race start and went four and five wide on the home turn to win over 2400m at Geelong at just his second race start. He is by the sprinter Strategic but his mother was sired by Zabeel so it seems there’s a good mixture of speed and staying ability in his breeding. Admittedly the race was a maiden but when you look through the form of the other chances their CV’s aren’t all that flash either. Manapine ran a bottler beaten 5.6 lengths in the Group 1 Australian Guineas to Wandjina after a luckless run at Sandown. Last start from barrier fifteen the jockey eased back and from there he just couldn’t get into the race with 59kg. If he is true to the Group1 effort he is a top chance here even allowing for his chronic get back style. All I Survey also won a maiden last start but this time down the highway to a lower maiden class at Terang. The difference between his maiden win and Oncidium Ruler was the winning margin between the two wins of 4.25 lengths. On balance that brings All I survey in with a chance as an improver. General James seemed to find the distance beyond him last start but the class was stronger than today’s field and I am prepared to note the seven day back up as a positive from the stable. He may get a soft run in transit at the longer distance and his NZ breeding indicates distance shouldn’t be the issue long term. Place chances go to Montpellier and Trippin’ Away who both finished behind Oncidium Ruler and seemed to have their chance of winning but by the same token issues like the race pace could be a factor to turn the result around. It’s only a small field but it is a very tricky race.

Flemington Race 7. RaceTime: AEST 16:15, 11/04/2015

RACEMAP(Barriers)
Front Runners (1) Trippin' Away, (3) Barely A Grin, (11) Danehill Downs.
On Pacers (5) Beserk, (7) General James, (9) Oncidium Ruler.
Mid Fielders (4) All Survey, (6) Montpelier, (8) Beltum, (10) Black Chevalier.
Get Back (2) Mannapine.
PACE COMMENTS With three leaders and three on pacers vying for the lead and relevant positions plus with the prospect of a small field I see the pace as genuine giving most runners their chance. That includes poor Mannapine, my only serious get back horse!
CHANCESPlus and Minus FactorsOrderMargin
Oncidium Ruler PLUS: 2400m winner second race start says stayer, Zabeel blood dam side. A 0
  MINUS: Nil.    
Manapine PLUS: Way too far back last run, beaten 5.6 lengths Group 1 Australian Guineas. B 0.5
  MINUS: Most likely last early.    
All I Survey PLUS: Easy last start winner when distance increased. C 0.75
  MINUS: Win in lower grade.    
General James PLUS: Lightly raced improver, two from six good tracks. D 1.5
  MINUS: Distance query on last run.    
RISK HORSES 
RISKY Black Chevalier (last three runs average), Danehill Downs (class rise from Donald concerns).
OUTCLASSED Nil.
Quadrella Race# Flemington 11 April 2015
Flemington 6 Nightline BM78 Handicap 2000m
Flemington 7 Galilee Series Final 2500m
Flemington 8 Ross Stevenson Trophy 1600m
Flemington 9 Darren James Trophy 2500m
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