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Flemington Race 7: G.H. Mumm Stakes 1100m

05/11/2015: If you have a close look you will notice I have several "nil" comments against the minus factors for most of my main chances. I just see this race as one of those races where any of my chances can win without a skerrick of surprise. I simply have Lumosty on top because she loves the Flemington straight with her last two starts there culminating in two easy wins and I have even allowed for her get back style. I am not going through all starters bar state a couple of things: one, the best value is I Love It and I cannot see why she isn't around 9/1 and the worst value is Lumosty at $3.50 and I would think she should be closer to $5.00 I am going to take two lots of trifectas where I leave Lumosty out of the A position in one set and a smaller go where she is on top. This is a really, really absorbing race.

Flemington Race 7. Track Condition: HEAVY (9). Weather: STORMS. RaceTime: AEDT 16:20, 05/11/2015

RACEMAPG.H. Mumm Stakes 1100m
Front Runners (4) I Am Gypsy, (5) Miss Promiscuity, (12) Hidden Pearl, (20) Japhils.
On Pacers (1) Ygritte, (2) Judicial Rock, (3) Catch That Cat, (6) I Love It, (11) The Messina Nympth, (18) Matilja, (21) Eloping.
Mid Fielders (9) Dublin Lass, (14) Oh So Assertive, (15) Pittsburgh Flyer, (16) Lumosty, (17) Tuscan Sling, (19) Afleet Esprit.
Get Back (7) Nautical, (8) In Style, (10) Brook Road, (13) Northern Saint.
PACE COMMENTS With Miss Promiscuity and I Am Gypsy likely to lead close to the fence, and Japhils and Hidden Pearl needing to join them, I expect there will be good early pace from that quartet. Following them is a host of on pacers waiting to pounce and perhaps even sit closer than usual so pace will not be an issue.
CHANCESG.H. Mumm Stakes 1100mOrderMargin
Lumosty PLUS: Loves Flemington straight course, four good track wins, handles wet track. A 0
  MINUS: Gets back.    
Miss Promiscuity PLUS: Two wins and five placings from five distance runs, handles good and soft tracks. B 0.25
  MINUS: Nil.    
I Love It PLUS: Two wins at 1200m so distance no issue, three good track wins, has won in wet. C 0.5
  MINUS: Nil.    
Tuscan Sling PLUS: Three good track wins from six starts, handles wet track, inches behind Miss Promiscuity last run. D 0.75
  MINUS: Nil.    
Hidden Pearl PLUS: Two wins from four distance runs, rate higher if track wet as three wins from four runs, J Cassidy. E 1
  MINUS: Nil.    
The Messina Nymph PLUS: Four distance wins, five good track wins, handles soft tracks, needed last run off 28 days. F 1.25
  MINUS: Nil.    
Quadrella Race# Flemington 5 November 2015
Flemington 6 Dilmah Earl Grey Stakes 1000m
Flemington 7 G.H. Mumm Stakes 1100m
Flemington 8 VRC Oaks 2500m
Flemington 9 Crown Resorts Plate 1600m
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