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Flemington Race 7: Lightning Stakes 1000m

19/02/2015: Last campaign it took Lankan Rupee two runs before scoring in the Group 1 Manikato Stakes but both defeats were gallant efforts and there is no reason to suggest he cannot win this first up. At the weights his danger is Brazen Beau, with only 3.5kg between them based on their ratings. His Group 1 Coolmore Stud victory was dominant and at his only other Flemington run he pulled up lame. On potential Deep Field stands tall, as he is undefeated after five runs, and is the horse we are gambling on to take this next step. He is not well weighted giving Lankan Rupee the equivalent of 4kg and by taking a line through Driefontein, who I believe would struggle at this level, I am slotting him into a close third position. It’s a call I might regret after the race but you have to make decision and that’s mine. My bet in the race will be my ABC trifecta for 3 units and BAC for one. If I am right I receive real value whereas for the win only I am not sure at the current odds.

Flemington Race 7. RaceTime: AEDT 16:43, 21/02/2015

RACEMAP(Barriers)
Front Runners (3) Fab Fevola.
On Pacers (5) Deep Field.
Mid Fielders (6) Lankan Rupee, (2) Brazen Beau.
Get Back (1) The Quarterback, (4) Watermans Bay
PACE COMMENTS A Royal Commission would be held if Fab Fevola doesn’t lead hence he will! Deep Field will slot in behind with Lankan Rupee being allowed to settle (the stables intention). Brazen Beau, fresh, will be keen to go early but will settle about mid field and The Quarterback and Waterman’s Bay will drop out to the rear. The pace will obviously be solid and should suit all runners.
CHANCESPlus and Minus FactorsOrderMargin
Lankan Rupee PLUS: World class rated, winner of ten from twenty, three from five first up, four from seven distance. A 0
  MINUS: Nil    
Brazen Beau PLUS: Chance at weights, four from eight career, sits off lead. B 0.75
  MINUS: Better at 1200m.    
Deep Field PLUS: Unbeaten five from five, untapped potential. C 1
  MINUS: Not well weighted against Lankan Rupee, class rise.    
RISK HORSES 
RISKY The Quarterback and Waterman’s Bay (place but not for the win).
OUTCLASSED Fab Fevola.
Quadrella Race# Flemington 21 February 2015
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