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Flemington Race 7: Patrobas BM90 Handicap 1720m

Although the barrier and a possibly torrid run causes concern Tonopah still comes out on top through his unbeaten record since joining the D Weir stable and the natural improvement he is displaying. Just the same his short price doesn’t enthuse me but the horse isn’t aware of that! I was initially disappointed with the run of Every Faith after declaring her one of the bets of the day but the Arena Rock form line has been proven and she drops a very helpful 5kg on the run. She is value for the each way punters around the 5/1 mark. Quick Snitzel was a tad unlucky in the Bairnsdale Cup last preparation behind Vizhaka and that horse would be a chance at this level. He was wide first up and last run was heavily backed to just miss. The backing is a sign that his fitness level was considered solid but on the result was just a track gallop short. At $10, also represents value. Harveys True Heart, Turnitaround and Grand Sai Wan all have a chance of winning, obviously, but when you study their minus factors you start to worry about them. For the place consider Sir John Hawkwood, Stratigraphy, Rawnaq and The New Boy but it’s asking for a lot to see them winning.

Flemington Race 7. RaceTime: AEDT 16:35, 31/01/2015

RACEMAP(Barriers)
Front Runners (16) Grand Sai Wan.
On Pacers (2) The New Boy, (5) Quick Snitzel, (7) Hannaford, (9) Rivers Lane, (10) Turnitaround.
Mid Fielders (3) Prince Of Capers, (4) Harveys True Heart, (6) Only A Pleasure, (12) Sir John Hawkwood, (13) Tonopah, (15) Every Faith.
Get Back (1) Shamardashing,(8) Aurum Spirit, (11) Bunchloch, (14) Kerthos, (17) Rawnaq.
PACE COMMENTS If all runners run up to their normal running styles of late Grand Sai Wan rockets over from his wide gate and holds out The New Boy, Quick Snitzel , Every Faith and Turnaround. Often when they come over so fast the leader tends to be fired up and I suspect the field will spread out early. Tonopah, the favourite, could be in trouble out the back slotting in from his wide barrier or he might get the perfect trail: it just depends on luck.
CHANCESPlus and Minus FactorsOrderMargin
Tonopah PLUS: Five wins seventeen runs, unbeaten in Weir stable, one from one track and distance. A 0
  MINUS: Barrier, gets back.    
Every Faith PLUS: Drops 5kg against males, Arena Rock formline good. B 1
  MINUS: Wide barrier.    
Quick Snitzel PLUS: Wide first up, four wins good tracks. C 1.25
  MINUS: 0 from six track.    
Harveys True Heart PLUS: Improved second up can third up, four wins good tracks, meets Tonopah better at weights. D 1.75
  MINUS: Drops out back early, no recent wins.    
Turnitaround PLUS: Three from three quinella track, one from one track and distance, 2kg claim helps. E 2
  MINUS: Two career wins sixteen runs, one from seven good tracks.    
Grand Sai Wan PLUS: Likely leader, meets Tonopah better at weights. F 2.25
  MINUS: Three wins from thirty good tracks.    
RISK HORSES 
RISKY Shamardashing (not on first up run, one from six second up), Hannaford (best in wet), Aurum Spirit (four wins from forty three runs career).
OUTCLASSED Prince Of Capers, Only A Pleasure, River's Lane, Bunchloch, Kerthos.
Quadrella Race# Flemington 31 January 2015
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