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Flemington Race 7: Peter Armytage Handicap 1700m

24/04/2015: It's very difficult not to select Silverball as his last start track win was a very solid effort and beating Atlantis Dream and The Bowler is not an easy task. Kenjorwood has beaten several reasonable horses (Eclair Samba, Count Encosta, Extra Zero) easily in his last two wins and then was caught wide both runs when beaten in the Moe and Kyneton Cups. After the claim he sits on 0.5kg over the limit and that’s very handy. Longeron has won over 1800m and 2000m and can improve on his second up run when he was caught up in traffic behind Silverball. Verdant’s three runs off a very long break have all indicated residual fitness is needed and he should be ready to display that this start. The mystery horse is Chance To Dance. After the claim he is carrying 0.5kg over the limit, which is helpful, but I must admit to being impressed by the fact he ran 4400m in five days to win his last start. That shows he is a tough horse and he might just be tough enough to win this first up. Place chances to Stipulate, Gris Caro, Saint Or Sinner, The Bowler, River’s Lane, Campanology, Wrotham Heath and Bel Rhythm.

Flemington Race 7. RaceTime: AEST 16:35, 25/04/2015

Front Runners (5) Spacecraft.
On Pacers (10) Longeron, (16) Cooldini, (17) Kenjorwood.
Mid Fielders (1) Silverwood, (4) Chance To Dance, (7) Stipulate, (8) Gris Caro, (14) Saint Or Sinner, (15) Bel Rhythm, (18) The Bowler.
Get Back (3) Campanology, (6) Wrotham Heath, (11) Zanbagh, (12) Verdant, (13) Rivers Lane.
PACE COMMENTS There's no doubt Spacecraft will lead which sees Longeron and Kenjorwood sitting off the pace waiting for Spacecraft to weaken. The solid pace will provide the mid fielders their chances, especially in form Silverball. If the backmarkers are up to the class I wouldn't be panicking about them either. The pace will be solid.
CHANCESPlus and Minus FactorsOrderMargin
Silverball PLUS: Heading for hat trick, five from nineteen career, C Waller improver. A 0
  MINUS: Inside barrier draw for mid fielder, won out wide last run    
Kenjorwood PLUS: Gets perfect on pace run, one one distance, one three track. B 0.5
  MINUS: Second up distance, break of five weeks.    
Longeron PLUS: On pacer, distance wins around this distance. C 2
  MINUS: Nil.    
Verdant PLUS: Five wins good tracks. D 2.2
  MINUS: 29 days.    
Chance To Dance PLUS: Lloyd Williams import, three seven good tracks. E 2.75
  MINUS: First Australian start difficult to assess.    
RISKY Cooldini (first up distance zero from four first up), Zanbagh (zero from nine fresh, will need run), Spacecraft (once a year these days).
Quadrella Race# Flemington 25 April 2015
Flemington 5 Hugo Throssell VC Handicap 1400m
Flemington 6 VRC St Leger 2800m
Flemington 7 Peter Armytage Handicap 1700m
Flemington 8 Auckland Racing Club Trophy 1200m
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