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Flemington Race 7: Provincial Plate 1600m

26/06/2015: Although this is a maximum size field I don’t think there are that many chances for the A position. To some punters Kenjorwood will have to pull out all stops to win with 60kg but a deeper look into his form and the horses that have beaten him home or he has beaten shows that the weight is fair. L Nolen will nurse him either in the lead or my preferred on the pace and at the one hundred meter mark he will look a strong winning chance. On recent runs it looks like Majestic Duke prefers a wet track, and that might be true, but he has won four times on good tracks and with 6kg less than Kenjorwood he gets his chance at this slightly higher level. Self Sense has a bit of class at this level so forget his last run when it seems the nose band he wore slipped blocking his nostrils. His career record shows he has won six times fresh from nine runs so I am expecting improvement at good odds, too. The one worry is that he seems to be a wet tracker but his best win, in the Kilmore Cup, was achieved on a good track. King’s Dance is an improver at this level. I fancied him last start and his run was fair and I am prepared to consider the riding change to C Newitt could be a positive move.

Flemington Race 7. RaceTime: AEST 15:25, 27/06/2015

RACEMAP(Barriers)
Front Runners (1) Majestic Duke, (4) Kenjorwood, (17) Lord Durante.
On Pacers (3) Rock 'N' Gold, (6) Diamond Warrior, (10) Kings Dance, (12) Self Sense.
Mid Fielders (2) Cisco Delago, (7) Excitement, (8) Let's Be A Star, (9) Baron Archer, (15) Kings Palace, (18) Orientaped.
Get Back (5) No Excuses Bec, (11) Chile Express, (13) Thunderbird One, (14) Sparkling To Win, (16) Heez Notorius
PACE COMMENTS Plenty of pace up front with a number of on pacers added to the mix who are capable of going forward should see this as a truly run race.
CHANCESPlus and Minus FactorsOrderMargin
Majestic Duke PLUS: Two from two distance, four good track wins, can lead or sit on pace, six from nineteen career. A 0
  MINUS: Last two wins on soft tracks.    
Kenjorwood PLUS: Can lead or sit on pace, two track wins, four from four quinella at distance, dry tracker. B 0.5
  MINUS: Distance drop with 60kg.    
King's Dance PLUS: Two from four distance, three from eight good tracks, lightly raced improver, senior jockey on. C 1
  MINUS: Rises 2kg from last run when beaten 2.6 lengths.    
Self Sense PLUS: Races well fresh, needed first up run plus nose roll problem, expect improvement D 1.75
  MINUS: Might still be run short, prefers wet tracks.    
RISK HORSES 
RISKY Chile Express, Lord Durante, Thunderbird One, Orientaped, No Excuses Bec and Let’s Be A Star are chances on their best form.
OUTCLASSED Baron Archer, Heez Notorious, Excitement, Rock ‘N’ Gold, Cisco Delago, Sparkling To Win and Diamond Warrior.
Quadrella Race# Flemington 27 June 2015
Flemington 6 Banjo Patterson Series Heat Five 2500m
Flemington 7 Provincial Plate 1600m
Flemington 8 Winter Championship Series Heat Six 1400m
Flemington 9 Leilani Series Heat Four 1400m
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