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Flemington Race 7: Winter Championship Series Final 1600m

10/07/2015: As always this race is a ripper to watch but a nightmare form wise as most of the lead up races are from a number of different tracks. I have thrown the darts and the A dart landed on Metaphorical. Her last run was forgettable after travelling wide all the way but it’s the run before when beating Lord Durante, a winner last week, I suggest we focus on. Kenjorwood has had a seven week break, which would normally bother me, but perhaps it is a plan and if so from barrier one he should get the softest run of them all. He does know how to dig in and have a go. Amovatio has the grandstand to carry, after a hefty 2.5kg weight rise, but he is up to the task going on his easy win last start and he can make it three from six at the distance. Mr Utopia is unbeaten at this distance (Western Australia form) and with 59kg also has the job ahead of him but he is classy enough to handle the assignment. I would give Sir Andrew another chance. He was wide last start and his run before was a luckless effort. A clear run down the outside is his best chance. Good Value was well fancied last start on a heavy track, which he has handled before, so perhaps it was the trip to Sydney third up off a long break which caused the ordinary run. Pin Your Hopes was reasonably good behind Amorino and Under The Louvre last preparation and he was wide last run so forgive the run off forty two days.This is clearly a leg of the quadrella where the field, if you can afford it, is the best way to go. That’s the only way I can guarantee the winner!

Flemington Race 7. RaceTime: AEST 15:30, 11/07/2015

RACEMAP(Barriers)
Front Runners (1) Kenjorwood, (2) Ventic, (10) Relentless.
On Pacers (3) Travolta, (7) Tried And Tired, (18) Coronation Shallan.
Mid Fielders (5) Tiny's Legacy, (6) Pin Your Hopes, (12) Metaphorical, (13) Good Value, (14) Amovatio, (17) Venture On, (19) Henwood.
Get Back (4) Lake Sententia, (8) Lord Of Brazil, (9) Sir Andrew, (11) Mr Utopia, (15) Search Squad, (16) By The Grace, (20) Clanga's Glory.
PACE COMMENTS Ventic will most likely lead from Kenjorwood with Relentless moving forward and that’s about it unless Coronation Shallan is asked to get a wriggle on early. This might have you believe this is a no early pace race, however, history has shown the back markers can win this particular race as positive moves are often made a long way from home. This leaves those who go too early vulnerable late.
CHANCESPlus and Minus FactorsOrderMargin
Metaphorical PLUS: Has won 2050m distance no issue, tough run last start, Lord Durante form line, prefers dry tracks. A 0
  MINUS: Mare versus males, gets back    
Kenjorwood PLUS: Gets terrific run, days break on purpose(?), two from six track, four good track wins. B 0.5
  MINUS: Thirty five days break, gets back.    
Amovatio PLUS: Two from five distance, five from thirteen good tracks, fourth up perfect this distance. C 0.75
  MINUS: Rises 2.5kg thus 60kg to carry, gets back.    
Mr Utopia PLUS: Two from two distance, eight good track wins, two from four track, ten from twenty five career. D 1
  MINUS: Gets back, big physical weight.    
Good Value PLUS: Possible forgive run last start, two from five distance, fourth up today helps fitter off big break. E 1.25
  MINUS: Has good wet track record with two from nine good tracks a concern.    
Sir Andrew PLUS: Wide all way last run, unlucky run before, C Williams sticks. F 1.5
  MINUS: Gets back.    
Pin Your Hopes PLUS: Four from ten distance, second only track and distance run, five good track wins, needed last run when wide. G 2
  MINUS: Last placing some time ago.    
Quadrella Race# Flemington 11 July 2015
Flemington 6 Rivette Series Final 1600m
Flemington 7 Winter Championship Series Final 1600m
Flemington 8 All Victorian Sprint Series Final 1200m
Flemington 9 Banjo Patterson Series Final 2600m
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