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Flemington Race 8: Ata Bob Hoysted Handicap 1000m

06/03/2015: It’s difficult to go past Flamberge based on his enormous effort to star sprinter Chautauqua though if you want to be critical he has been comprehensively beaten at his last two runs up the straight when well backed and was scratched last week. I will just give him the nod over Magnus Lad whose only run up the straight was a 0.9 length defeat by Convincible and Samartested both of whom aren’t all that exciting as racehorses though have ability. The rise in class and as a mare against the males is my main concern re Chloe In Paris however if she wins comfortably it would be no surprise as the potential is clearly there. Nordic Empire likes this distance, as you would with three from three, though he does seem to be a Moonee Valley horse more than elsewhere. Turquoise King has the ability to blow away this field however first up and with a slight class rise on previous first up efforts I just have to risk him a fraction, though reluctantly. Place chances to the old warrior General Truce, Sumakaray, Zamorar and Antarctic Missile.

Flemington Race 8. RaceTime: AEDT 17:10, 07/03/2015

RACEMAP(Barriers)
Front Runners (1) Let's Rock'n'Roll, (2) Vatican, (3) Zamorar, (10) Flamberge.
On Pacers (4) Sumakaray, (6) Turquoise King, (7) Magnus Lad, (9) Chloe In Paris, (13) Antarctic Missile.
Mid Fielders (12) Nordic Empire.
Get Back (5) Peron, (8) Danger Close, (11) General Truce.
PACE COMMENTS The pace will be quite solid with my four front runners controlling the lead positions with the on pacers waiting their chance. Flamberge has fitness on his side so should keep the other front runners under control. The chances of the mid fielders and get back types purely depends on just how fast they go out in front and unfortunately we won’t really know until the race is on but Turquoise King, Magnus Lad and Chloe In Paris know how to finish strongly.
CHANCESPlus and Minus FactorsOrderMargin
Flamberge PLUS: Three wins straight track, Chautauqua form line. A 0
  MINUS: Stars in wet four wins from seven.    
Magnus Lad PLUS: Five wins eleven career runs, two from three distance, four from seven good. B 0.25
  MINUS: Won four from last four around bends.    
Chloe In Paris PLUS: Powerful wins both runs this preparation, two from four distance, classic lightly raced improver. C 0.5
  MINUS: Mare against males and class rise.    
Nordic Empire PLUS: Three from three distance, two from five good tracks, another lightly raced improver. D 1
  MINUS: Class rise.    
Turquoise King PLUS: Five from thirteen career, two from three first up, four from eight good tracks. E 1.5
  MINUS: Class rise on previous first up runs.    
RISK HORSES 
RISKY Vatican (struggling this level these days), Let's Rock'n'Roll (Kaiser Sun formline not strong enough), Peron (mare versus males off 259 days), Danger Close (class rise concern off 56 days, gets back long way, like better at Sandown).
OUTCLASSED Nil.
Quadrella Race# Flemington 7 March 2015
Flemington 6 Francess Tressady Stakes 1400m
Flemington 7 Australian Guineas 1600m
Flemington 8 Ata Bob Hoysted Handicap 1000m
Flemington 9 Hong Kong Jockey Club Trophy BM90 1800m
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