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Flemington Race 8: Blazer Stakes 1400m

02/10/2015: There's not much between those at the top and I settled on Atlantis Dream as the second up improver from the D Weir stable. She didn't have the clearest passage first up yet was beaten a mere 1.1 lengths. Forget Madam Gangster went around last start as the jockey was almost tipped out of the saddle when the gates opened. She was previously unbeaten at the track and distance. Jessy Belle received the run Atlantis Dream didn't and based on her excellent Flemington record she's obviously a top hope. Satya did not see daylight either behind Politeness and her final sectional was excellent for a mare having just her third race start. Hazard has beaten Catkins at Group 2 level and that's no mean feat and even though she is drawn wide I envisage her getting over. It's just a matter of the work needed to overcome the barrier.

Flemington Race 8. RaceTime: AEDT 16:50, 04/10/2015

RACEMAPBlazer Stakes 1400m
Front Runners (15) Hazard.
On Pacers (3) Satya, (5) Tycoon Tara, (10) Lucky Lago.
Mid Fielders (6) Managaress, (7) Cathy's Mark, (8) Jessy Belle, (12) Atlantis Dream, (13) Girl Guide, (14) Madam Gangster.
Get Back (1) Amarela. (2) Girl In Flight, (4) Lilly Dazzler, (9) La Passe, (11) Minnie Downs.
PACE COMMENTS I envisage Hazard rocketing over early from her wide barrier and the likes of Tycoon Tara, Girl Guide, Lucky Lago and Satya (if she jumps cleanly) to boot forward as well. This should provide an even pace suitable to most runners. On my race map there is a bit of a log jam behind leaders and on pacers and it will be more of a case of slotting in, especially for Madam Gangster and Atlantis Dream, and not be caught wide rather than pace. Bet with confidence on the mid fielders: they will get their chance. I am a tad more wary on the back markers.
CHANCESBlazer Stakes 1400mOrderMargin
Atlantis Dream PLUS: Two wins from five distance runs, one from one track and distance, three good track wins. A 0
  MINUS: Midfielder.    
Madam Gangster PLUS: Four wins from seven distance attempts, two wins at track and distance, almost lost jockey last run. B 0.25
  MINUS: Wide barrier forces her back early.    
Jessy Belle PLUS: Two wins from four runs at the track and distance, five good track wins. C 0.75
  MINUS: Midfielder.    
Hazard PLUS: Three wins from eight distance runs, seven good track wins, needed last run, Group 2 winner. D 1.25
  MINUS: Zero wins from eight second up runs, drawn wide and might have to work early.    
Satya PLUS: Lightly raced improver, strong last start Group 3 level, difficult to assess, Hawkes Team trains. E 1.5
  MINUS: Class rise, not suited at the weights.    
Quadrella Race# Flemington 4 October 2015
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