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Flemington Race 8: Flemington Event Staff BM90 1600m

22/07/2016: Tasmanian galloper Jerilderie Letter has the perfect 4 wins from 4 runs when racing 4th up and later and I'm expecting he keep that record intact at his 4th run into this preparation. A triple Listed winner at home, both runs on the mainland have been good and firmer track here looks a plus. Beaten by in form mare last time and should take a power of beating here. Expect sharp improvement from Refulgent who has a strong record this track and distance. Failed on heavy ground last time and expected drier track here is a big plus. Will also strip much fitter for last run after a 47 day break. Spreadeagled has let backers down at last 2 runs after winning at Sandown, but might appreciate the more expansive Flemington track. Draws the inside and looks to have genuine each way claims. Royal Rapture won over this course 2 runs back prior to an inexplicable poor effort last time out at Caulfield. Has to overcome wide draw but return to Flemington looks a plus and no surprise to see him recapture winning form. Victory Downs has won 6 from 12 including 3 of last 4 outings. Is proven this level and must rate on current form. Keep an eye on the big bets.

Flemington Race 8. Track Condition: SOFT (7). Weather: OCAST. RaceTime: AEST 16:20, 23/07/2016

RACEMAPFlemington Event Staff BM90 1600m
Front Runners Nil.
On Pacers (3) Volcanic Ash, (4) Award Of Merit, (7) Lord Durante, (11) Vizhaka.
Mid Fielders (1) Spreadeagled, (8) Jerilderie Letter, (9) Refulgent, (10) Victory Downs, (12) Great Esteem.
Get Back (2) Aurum Spirit, (5) Margin Trader, (6) Cooldini, (13) Civalry, (14) Royal Rapture, (15) Lucques.
PACE COMMENTS In races where there is no consistent front runner we often have a problem with defining the likely leader but in this race I feel it is safe to assume my on pacers, though Lord Durante is a concern, will assume positions near the lead. This is not a difficult race for any of them to lead and on the basis of keenness early from the four prospects I am going to assume the pace will good enough for the mid fielders to make their presence felt late in the race but the get back types are another story.
CHANCESFlemington Event Staff BM90 1600mOrderMargin
Jerilderie Letter PLUS: Unbeaten 4th up and later, triple Listed winner, goes well this distance, drier track in favour. A 0
  MINUS: Nil.    
Refulgent PLUS: Strong record over this course, drier track here a plus, fitter for last outing. B 1
  MINUS: Ran last in field of 6 last time.    
Spreadeagled PLUS: Good record this distance, bigger track here should help, well drawn. C 1.75
  MINUS: Rises in class.    
Royal Rapture PLUS: Winner only run at track/distance, goes well at distance. D 2.25
  MINUS: Drawn wide.    
Victory Downs PLUS: Won 6 from 12, proven this level, won 3 from last 4. E 2.5
  MINUS: Unplaced only run at distance, drawn a little wide.    
Quadrella Race# Flemington 23 July 2016
Flemington 6 Bruce Gadsden BM90 1200m
Flemington 7 Bitalli Handicap 2500m
Flemington 8 Flemington Event Staff BM90 1600m
Flemington 9 VRC Recognition Handicap 1100m
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EXOTICS Flemington Event Staff BM90 1600m
Exacta

A: 2 3 7 12

B: 2 3 7 12

Trifecta

A: 2 3 7 8 12

B: 2 3 7 8 12

C: 2 3 7 8 12

First Four

A: 2 7 12

B: 2 3 7 12

C: 2 3 7 8 12

D: 2 3 7 8 12

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