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Flemington Race 8: Flemington Event Staff Handicap 1600m

17/07/2015: The likelihood of a soft track enhances the prospects of Abbasso and with D Oliver aboard. Hopefully making a move earlier than usual and why I am making him my top selection. Subscribers to the winners keep winning theory will be on Majestic Duke but he has risen 6kg on his last win and that will slow him down. The wetter it gets the better chance for Lord Of Brazil but by the same token he has been running quite well on good tracks and an improved run fourth up is definitely on the cards. Clanga's Glory is another runner who loves the wet but has also shown by his last run on perhaps an unsuitable good track that he is on the cusp of another win. Actuariat is at quite miserable odds for a horse needing to come from well back in the field in what appears to be a slowly run race. His two runs on slow tracks have been in Adelaide in just average fields as I see them. I will accept his 5.5kg weight drop from his first up run and the addition of C Williams are enough pluses for me to slot him in as the race improver.

Flemington Race 8. RaceTime: AEST 16:15, 18/07/2015

RACEMAPFlemington Event Staff Handicap 1600m 
Front Runners (6) River's Lane, (8) Majestic Duke.
On Pacers (7) Abbasso,(14) Henwood.
Mid Fielders (1) Godfrey, (2) Clanga's Glory, (4) Kareeming, (9) At First Sight, (12) Actuariat.
Get Back (3) Lord Of Brazil, (7) Lake Sententia, (10) Count Of Limonade, (11) Pepin Hoaks, (13) Stratigraphy, (15) Yenhaab.
PACE COMMENTS If only all racemaps were as easy as this one bar for one chance I will take and that’s with Abbasso, who I would normally have mid field or even worse but I am imagining D Oliver will push him forward a fraction early. This is because there are just three other horses likely to lead and sit on pace thus the overall pace will not suit those who get back.
CHANCESFlemington Event Staff Handicap 1600mOrderMargin
Abbasso PLUS: C Waller visitor from Sydney, three from eleven heavy. A 0
  MINUS: One from fifteen good tracks.    
Majestic Duke PLUS: Three from three distance, two from six in wet with five quinella positions. B 0.25
  MINUS: One from fifteen good tracks., rises 6 kg from last run.    
Actuariat PLUS: Drops 5.5kg, wide last run forgive effort., lightly raced improver. C 1
  MINUS: Gets back, rise to open company possibly compensated by weight drop.    
Lord Of Brazil PLUS: Five from thirteen wet tracks, two from eight track, four from fourteen distance. D 1.5
  MINUS: Gets back.    
Clanga's Glory PLUS: Five from ten wet tracks, four from nine distance. E 2.5
  MINUS: One from eight track.    
Quadrella Race# Flemington 18 July 2015
Flemington 6 Dalray Handicap 1100m
Flemington 7 Bruce Gadsden Handicap 1400m
Flemington 8 Flemington Event Staff Handicap 1600m
Flemington 9 Briseis Handicap 2000m
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