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Flemington Race 8: Kyle Smith Handicap 1400m

29/01/2016: Most punters will be all over the prospects of Camdus based on his stellar career of three wins from four runs and his defeat of subsequent winner Ballinaclash last start. On my initial priceline I have him at about $3.20 but as he is $2.25 he does not represent any value at all to yours truly. He hasn't run for 24 days (minor issue I suppose) nor has he been over the 1400m at Flemington (minor again?) but at $2.25 I am getting the wobbles. I am selecting Dig A Pony as she has run some terrific races at Flemington, ran a really good race first up and you will note Dwayne Dunn is back on board (one ride for one win on the mare). I would rather take the $2.50 odd for the place on Dig A Pony than $2.25 for the win on the favourite. I am slotting Dan Zephyr in for second based on the Burning Front/We've Got This (both recent city winners) form line three runs ago. That is terrific form for this race especially if you forgive his first up run up the Flemington straight. Camdus goes in for third because he beat Ballinaclash last start who beat home a reasonable horse in Mihany at Pakenham race 6. Don't dismiss The New Boy as he drops from 59kg to a more reasonable 55.5kg, will lead easily and opposition jockeys might underestimate his chances and let him slip away. Best Suggestion makes my cut simply because of the claim meaning he drops a hefty 7kg on his last run. He was beaten easily by Zuprising but was wide most of the way in a forgivable run.

Flemington Race 8. Track Condition: GOOD (3). Weather: OCAST. RaceTime: AEDT 16:46, 30/01/2016

RACEMAPKyle Smith Handicap 1400m
Front Runners (2) The New Boy.
On Pacers (1) Best Suggestion, (3) Camdus, (10) Don Zephyr.
Mid Fielders (8) Bel Seal, (9) Agent, (11) Dig A Pony.
Get Back (4) Killarney Kid, (5) Thought Worthy, (6) Marco Polo, (7) Chile Express, (12) Auld Burns.
PACE COMMENTS There are just some horses that lead and over this distance The New Boy will do exactly that. He will provide a genuine pace, as he usually does, thus providing Camdus, Best Suggestion and Dan Zephyr with perfect runs in his slipstream. The mid fielders should get their chance, too.
CHANCESKyle Smith Handicap 1400mOrderMargin
Dig A Pony PLUS: Three distance wins from nine runs, runs top races this track, handles good tracks but three wins in damp from five runs. A 0
  MINUS: Nil.    
Dan Zephyr PLUS: Three wins on good tracks, passable in wet, strong city class form lines (see form writeup), improver on run after break. B 0.5
  MINUS: Nil.    
Camdus PLUS: Three career wins from four starts, three good track wins. C 1
  MINUS: First Flemington run and 24 days break minor concerns, class rise.    
The New Boy PLUS: Likely leader, weight drop of 3.5kg very useful, three wins at track, handles all track conditions. D 1.25
  MINUS: Just getting older and inconsistent with wins these days.    
Best Suggestion PLUS: Two wins and five placings from eight distance runs, seems to handle all track conditions, 3kg claim most helpful. E 1.5
  MINUS: Class rise balanced by 7kg weight drop.    
Quadrella Race# Flemington 30 January 2016
Flemington 6 John Calvert Handicap 1400m
Flemington 7 Kensington Stakes 1000m
Flemington 8 Kyle Smith Handicap 1400m
Flemington 9 The Summer Series Handicap 1800m
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EXOTICS Kyle Smith Handicap 1400m
Exacta

A: 4 10

B: 4 7 9 10 11

Trifecta

A: 4 10

B: 4 7 9 10 11

C: 4 7 9 10 11

First Four

A: 4 10

B: 4 7 9 10 11

C: 4 7 9 10 11

D: 4 7 9 10 11

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