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Flemington Race 8: Ross Stevenson Trophy 1600m

10/04/2015: If this race was at Caulfield I would be declaring Kenjorwood as an each way special based on his demolition job at that track last September. However, Flemington does open the race for others in the race. Nevertheless Kenjorwood showed first up, after a tough run, he is going to be a force to be reckoned with this campaign and the winning streak could easily start here. The Bowler is a rejuvenated horse since he has been coming from off the pace in the shorter races but from his wide barrier he, I suspect, will go forward, get a rest mid field and be a strong chance of victory and defy the distance doubters. Silverball has raced really well in his two Australian runs since arriving from Hong Kong and his last start win was a ripper, albeit on a wet track. Zabisco is the speckie in this race at good odds because he has good second up form and I thought his first up run was a beauty as he was caught wide most of the race and was super wide on the home turn. Naturally, his condition gave out quickly so be lenient when looking at the beaten margin. The 3kg claim for Signoff and Flemington sways me to consider him as a genuine each way chance. Place chances to Girl In Flight, Chile Express, Atlantis Dream, Swift Shadow, Entertains and Secret Toy Bizness.

Flemington Race 8. RaceTime: AEST 16:55, 11/04/2015

RACEMAP(Barriers)
Front Runners (6) Spacecraft.
On Pacers (2) Kenjorwood, (9) Longeron, (14) The Bowler, (17) Swift Shadow.
Mid Fielders (3) Swacadelic, (4) Signoff, (5) Campanology, (7) Chile Express, (10) Atlantis Dream, (12) Entertains.
Get Back (1) Secret Toy Bizness, (8) Zabisco, (11) Zanbagh, (13) Silverball, (15) Thunderbird One, (16) Girl In Flight, (19) Pinstripe Lane, (20) Wrotham Heath.
PACE COMMENTS As with The Cleaner it's almost a good thing Spacecraft will lead in his races and when he does he usually sets a solid pace. This provides Longeron with a beautiful run off the lead but could also force him to take the field up to Spacecraft which can be a negative if the rider lacks a sense of pace. D Dunn, his rider, is one of the best at judging pace so don't panic on that instance. I expect The Bowler to go forward along with Swift Shadow from their wide barriers even though they are not renowned aggressive forward types. If they don’t they face being caught wide. Kenjorwood may also kick up and add that bit of extra pace early. All told the action up forward will provide a good, solid clip for all runners.
CHANCESPlus and Minus FactorsOrderMargin
Kenjorwood PLUS: Drawn well, four from four quinella distance, 2kg claim helps, three good track wins, big run first up. A 0
  MINUS: Nil.    
The Bowler PLUS: Heading for hat trick, wide last run strong effort. B 0.5
  MINUS: Slight distance query.    
Silverball PLUS: C Waller to Melbourne, three from five distance, strong effort last run. C 1
  MINUS: Better soft to heavy?    
Zabisco PLUS: Won two from six second up, wide second up last campaign, four from thirteen distance. D 1.25
  MINUS: Fitness query.    
Longeron PLUS: Two from four distance, strong first up. E 1.5
  MINUS: Zero wins five track, three from five soft tracks.    
Signoff PLUS: Six from thirteen good tracks, first up winner, seven from fourteen career, 3 kg claim real help. F 2
  MINUS: Distance slight concern.    
RISK HORSES 
RISKY Zanbagh (not first up here), Thunderbird One (last preparation poor), Pinstripe Lane (zero wins seven fresh runs), Spacecraft (impossible to follow), Swacadelic (wins at 2000m plus, first up tough this field), Wrotham Heath (first up run ordinary), Campanology (three career wins).
OUTCLASSED Nil.
Quadrella Race# Flemington 11 April 2015
Flemington 6 Nightline BM78 Handicap 2000m
Flemington 7 Galilee Series Final 2500m
Flemington 8 Ross Stevenson Trophy 1600m
Flemington 9 Darren James Trophy 2500m
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