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Flemington Race 8: Schweppervescence Trophy 1600m

13/03/2015: In this type of race where the handicapper has a minimal say, only being allowed to add penalties, you still have to stick with the class horses regardless of all their negatives. As mentioned in my race map comments I am suggesting wariness about win prices but for those taking quadrellas and other exotic formats that require winners taking Set Square, the well weighted filly against the mares (she’s a mare in four months officially), is a logical step for the A position. Bonaria’s love of Flemington has her a close second and by taking a line through the all conquering Sydney based Contributer, Noble Protector cannot be too far off an A selection either. The lack of fitness has me slotting her third but not by much. From there Precious Gem features based on her strong, wide all the way, effort to Tycoon Tara and you can never underestimate the lone leader in a race, which is Choose. She may not have the class but she knows how to fight in a finish and that’s a pretty good recommendation to keep her safe. Place chances go to Bippo No Bungus, Marianne, Street Allure and Fenway.

Flemington Race 8. RaceTime: AEDT 17:10, 14/03/2015

RACEMAP(Barriers)
Front Runners (1) Choose.
On Pacers (9) Precious Gem.
Mid Fielders (2) Marianne, (4) Bonaria, (6) Refer, (7) Fenway, (11) Set Square.
Get Back (3) Bippo No Bungus, (5) Noble Protector, (8) Panarea, (10) Epingle, (12) Street Allure.
PACE COMMENTS Choose is the lone leader with Precious Gem most likely to kick forward and be running second early. From there it's a hoppo bumpo type of scenario as the normal mid fielders and get back types jostle for their positions. The pace early won’t be fantastic and this could play havoc with the mid fielders and back markers. Be wary about taking a silly win price about the likes of Bonarria, Set Square and especially Noble Protector, who I have buried in the ruck.
CHANCESPlus and Minus FactorsOrderMargin
Set Square PLUS: Well weighted, three from five good, two from two track quinella, H Bowman aboard. A 0
  MINUS: Filly versus mares.    
Bonaria PLUS: Four from five track and distance, five wins good tracks, well weighted bar against Set Square. B 0.25
  MINUS: Gets back, inside barrier.    
Noble Protector PLUS: Australian runs strong for this, second to Contributer first up last campaign, C Williams sticks. C 0.5
  MINUS: First up distance.    
Precious Gem PLUS: Wide all way last run against Tycoon Tara, two from seven distance, five good track wins. D 1.5
  MINUS: Class rise.    
Choose PLUS: Lone leader easy early sectionals, two from four track, five from eleven good. E 1.75
  MINUS: Class rise.    
RISK HORSES 
RISKY Epingle (should be outsprinted).
OUTCLASSED Panarea, Refer.
Quadrella Race# Flemington 14 March 2015
Flemington 6 Newmarket Handicap 1200m
Flemington 7 Australian Cup 2000m
Flemington 8 Schweppervescence Trophy 1600m
Flemington 9 My Kitchen Rules Stakes 1400m
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