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Flemington Race 8: Schweppervescence Trophy 1600m

11/03/2016: If history can repeat itself there's no reason, bar fitness issues, why Noble Protector cannot win first up as she did two campaigns ago when winning this race exactly twelve months ago. On that day she lobbed third early and sprinted away at the 200m mark to record a very, very easy win. She must have had issues in the Spring as she had two ordinary runs and the stable spelled her immediately. Although I like Miss Rose De Lago better on tighter tracks, such as Moonee Valley and Caulfield, with the soft lead I hope she receives I believe she can record her first victory at Flemington. Anaphora is a serious danger to my quinella horses as she ran a ripper race last start when finishing about one length behind Miss Rose De Lago after a break of seven weeks. She has won both her distance runs so expect a forward showing just on that factor but she is also fitter. Sacred Eye only weakened in the last one hundred metres when first up to Don't Doubt Mama in the Group 3 Vanity Stakes and will obviously be fitter for the run. She has the class to figure as evidenced by her defeat of Lizard Island in the Group 3 Caulfield Classic, a horse who was placed to Press Statement in the Group 1 Caulfield Guineas.

Flemington Race 8. Track Condition: GOOD (4). Weather: OCAST. RaceTime: AEDT 17:10, 12/03/2016

RACEMAPSchweppervescence Trophy 1600m
Front Runners (11) Miss Rose De Lago.
On Pacers (9) Noble Protector.
Mid Fielders (1) Felicienne, (2) Redasun, (3) Alaskan Rose, (7) Sure You Can, (8) Anaphora, (12) Sacred Eye.
Get Back (4) Dig A Pony, (5) Metaphorical, (6) Mossbeat, (10) Lily Dazzler, (13) Vital Imporatnce.
PACE COMMENTS Gosh, this is an interesting race map because I have one leader and one on pacer. This will create pace problems for those back in the field if the race develops into a sprint home. This makes me very, very wary about including the back markers and a fraction worried about the mid fielders. Just be careful about the odds of any of those runners and demand double figures.
CHANCESSchweppervescence Trophy 1600mOrderMargin
Noble Protector PLUS: Three distance wins, five good track wins, easy winner of this race last year. A 0
  MINUS: Better on dry tracks but cannot dismiss on just three runs.    
Miss Rose De Lago PLUS: Receives easy lead, seven good track wins, two distance wins. B 0.25
  MINUS: Better on dry tracks but cannot dismiss on just three runs ( same as Noble Protector).    
Anaphora PLUS: Two wins from two runs at the distance, good track wins total three. C 0.5
  MINUS: Another with minimal damp track form.    
Sacred Eye PLUS: Distance no issue, lightly raced improver. D 0.75
  MINUS: As per the main chances another with minimal damp track form.    
Quadrella Race# Flemington 12 March 2016
Flemington 6 Lexus Newmarket Handicap 1200m
Flemington 7 Australian Cup 2000m
Flemington 8 Schweppervescence Trophy 1600m
Flemington 9 My Kitchen Rules Stakes 1400m
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EXOTICS Schweppervescence Trophy 1600m
Exacta

A: 3 10

B: 1 2 3 10

Trifecta

A: 3 10

B: 1 2 3 10

C: 1 2 3 6 10 11 13

First Four

A: 3 10

B: 1 2 3 10

C: 1 2 3 6 10 11 13

D: 1 2 3 6 10 11 13

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