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Flemington Race 8: Tab.Com.Au BM96 1200m

19/02/2015: This is another tough race but on recent form lines it’s a really tight call between Decircles, Magnus Reign and Floatmyboat. I have enormous respect for Decircles fighting ability and now he’s back to his best track and distance (three from six) I think he looks a top chance. Magnus Reign just defeated Tycoon Tara last start and she won at Group level last Saturday in emphatic style. On that effort he goes in second from Floatmyboat whom he just beat start in the race Tycoon Tara ran so well in. Hosting is quite capable of winning this first up as his first up run last preparation was quite strong remembering he suffered interference early in the straight. He followed up that win with another fighting effort to just win a three way thriller at Caulfield. His major worry is that this is his first run over the straight course, a task that has beaten many before him but with five wins from fourteen runs this horse is going places. Although Akavoroun is better suited over longer distances, and in the wet, he is a classy horse as evidenced by his enormous, virtually wide all the way, run behind Trust A Gust in the Group 1 Toorak Handicap. At the odds he is worth serious consideration. I wouldn’t totally dismiss Hard Stride, Mr Chard, Mandla, Mahican and Single Days as on their day and potential wise they have a chance.

Flemington Race 8. RaceTime: AEDT 17:15, 21/02/2015

RACEMAP(Barriers)
Front Runners (2) Hard Stride, (8) Don Deremo, (10) Decircles.
On Pacers (5) Magnus Reign.
Mid Fielders (1)Mandla, (3) Floatmyboat, (7) General Offer, (9) Hosting, (11) Mahican (12) Dig A Pony.
Get Back (4)Akavoroun, (6) Single Days, (13) Mr Chard.
PACE COMMENTS The pace should be solid enough with three front runners heading the field and Magnus Reign kicking up to hold a prominent position. I wouldn’t be too worried if I was backing a mid fielder or get back type.
CHANCESPlus and Minus FactorsOrderMargin
Decircles PLUS: Four from eight distance, three from six track and distance, fighter. A 0
  MINUS: Nil.    
Magnus Reign PLUS: Defeated Tycoon Tara last run, last start track and distance winner, rockhard fit. B 0.25
  MINUS: Two from nineteen distance.    
Floatmyboat PLUS: Two from six distance, meets Magnus Reign 1 kg better at weights. C 0.5
  MINUS: Nil.    
Hosting PLUS: Five wins fourteen runs, two from four distance, three from five first up. D 1
  MINUS: First run straight track.    
Akavoroun PLUS: Unbeaten first up two from two, Group potential this campaign on Toorak Handicap effort. E 1.5
  MINUS: Huge weight, better longer distance and in wet    
RISK HORSES 
RISKY Dig A Pony (better first up against mares), General Offer (struggling this level), Don Doremo (first up this level tougher than past).
OUTCLASSED Nil.
Quadrella Race# Flemington 21 February 2015
Flemington 6 C S Hayes Stakes 1400m
Flemington 7 Lightning Stakes 1000m
Flemington 8 Tab.Com.Au BM96 1200m
Flemington 9 Flemington Handicap BM84 1600m
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