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Flemington Race 8: VRC Oaks 2500m

05/11/2015: In most years the winner of the Wakeful Stakes starts the VRC Oaks favourite and often enough wins to make it the easiest race over the carnival but not so this year. This year Sacred Eye has form lines against the VRC Derby runner up Etymology and on that basis I have her on top however I am very fearful of Ambience. She sprinted with serious zest when it counted in the Wakeful and if Ryan Moore on Sacred Eye is having a sleep James McDonald might just sprint away as they straighten. Meanwhile D Oliver on Jameka, the filly who defeated VRC Derby winner Tarzino last start, will be sitting thereabouts summing up the pace and all that is happening as only the great jockey can do. I was tempted to slot in Pasadena Girl but I just think the pace might be the issue but I do acknowledge her unbeaten Flemington runs and H Bowman aboard.

Flemington Race 8. Track Condition: HEAVY (9). Weather: STORMS. RaceTime: AEDT 17:00, 05/11/2015

Front Runners Nil.
On Pacers (8) Jameka, (10) Ambience.
Mid Fielders (2) Dawnie Perfect, (5) Pasadena Girl, (6) Ritzy, (9) Sacred Eye, (11) Princess Aria.
Get Back (1) Muzyka, (3) Dulverton, (4) The Grey Flash, (7) Zarabeel, (12) Honesta.
PACE COMMENTS In a race where there are no clearly acknowledged leaders you always wonder what is going to eventuate as the connections of those in the market are always reluctant to change their horses normal in running pattern. I would be thinking, and hoping, one of the long odds mid fielders like Ritzy or Princess Aria might go forward as their connections might believe sitting behind the fancied runners isn't a good idea. We will just have to wait and see.
CHANCESVRC Oaks 2500mOrderMargin
Sacred Eye PLUS: VRC Derby form line via Etmology. A 0
  MINUS: Distance query and wet track.    
Ambience PLUS: Easy winner of Wakeful Stakes, can handle dry and wet. B 0.25
  MINUS: Distance query, beat ordinary horses in the Wakeful Stakes.    
Jameka PLUS: VRC Derby form line via Tarzino through Moonee Valley Vase, D Oliver aboard. C 0.5
  MINUS: Distance query.    
Quadrella Race# Flemington 5 November 2015
Flemington 6 Dilmah Earl Grey Stakes 1000m
Flemington 7 G.H. Mumm Stakes 1100m
Flemington 8 VRC Oaks 2500m
Flemington 9 Crown Resorts Plate 1600m
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