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Flemington Race 8: Winter Championship Series Heat Six 1400m

26/06/2015: This is a race where luck in running will play a huge part and as stated in my race map comments the pace will be of some concern as well. Although Good Value’s record suggest he is better in the wet his recent dry track record shows runs well and truly up to this level. Sir Andrew ‘s two runs in Australia have been strong efforts with a flying finish at this track and distance behind Whistle Baby and a luckless run a fortnight ago around Mr Utopia and Good Value. My main concern revolves around his bad barrier which will again force him back in the field but with C Williams aboard I am expecting another ripper run. Mr Utopia has a strong finish and will again be a contender in the last two hundred metres. Amovatio has been sent south by C Waller obviously trying to avoid Sydney’s wet tracks. Considering his wet track form (one win from thirteen) his recent runs on soft tracks have been quite good.

Flemington Race 8. RaceTime: AEST 16:05, 27/06/2015

RACEMAP(Barriers)
Front Runners (1) Decircles, (19) Ventic.
On Pacers (3) Castlezberg, (5) Bon Rocket, (14) Academy Jack.
Mid Fielders (2) Venture On, (6) Good Value, (7) Le Remas, (10) Pin Your Hopes,(11) Tiny's Legacy, (18) Tried And True.
Get Back (4) Correggio, (8) Clanga's Glory, (9) Amovatio, (12) Lord Of Brazil, (13) Sir Andrew, (15) Stratigraphy, (16) Eximius, (17) Mr Utopia.
PACE COMMENTS Decircles and Ventic are regular front runners so they will surge forward fairly comfortably. It's not so clear cut with the on pacers but those I have listed seem most likely to be sitting behind my two front runners. It's this sort of scenario which bothers me a fraction as far as the back runners are concerned so be super cautious with prices you accept. It seems to me the early pace won’t be hectic.
CHANCESPlus and Minus FactorsOrderMargin
Good Value PLUS: Four from ten distance, lightly raced for eight year old, gets good run off pace. A 0
  MINUS: Four from thirteen wet, one from eight track.    
Sir Andrew PLUS: Two Oz runs strong, distance winner, ready to win, held up last run. B 0.25
  MINUS: Wide barrier means gets back, eligible for lower class races.    
Mr Utopia PLUS: Three from five distance, two from three track, eight good track wins. C 0.75
  MINUS: Gets back with 59kg in possible slow pace race.    
Amovatio PLUS: C Waller from Sydney, four good track wins, last win good track five runs ago. D 1
  MINUS: Gets well back early concern.    
Tried And Tired PLUS: Wide and unlucky last two runs, three distance wins, four good track wins. E 1.5
  MINUS: Wide barrier means gets back with 59.5kg, one from seven track and distance.    
Eximius PLUS: Three from nine track, two from five track and distance, second up improver at favourite track. F 2
  MINUS: Wide barrier, gets back.    
RISK HORSES 
RISKY Decircles, Venture On, Pin Your Hopes, Stratigraphy, Academy Jack, Tiny’s Legacy, Ventic, Bon Rocket, Castlzeberg.
OUTCLASSED Lord Of Brazil, Correggio, Le Remas, Clanga's Glory.
Quadrella Race# Flemington 27 June 2015
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Flemington 8 Winter Championship Series Heat Six 1400m
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