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Flemington Race 9: Antler Luggage Trophy BM90 1800m

03/03/2016: Gosh, this is a tough finish to the day. Looking at the weights and the handicappers ratings and the winning habits of Spreadeagled has me selecting this honest horse. He might be 79 rater at the moment but I have a strong feeling that will change soon and I hope it will be this Saturday. On my race map he receives a terrific run off the pace and Dwayne Dunn will give him every chance. It was hard not be impressed with the run of Divan when first up as he was wide a fair part of the journey and stuck to his guns in the straight. I notice Damien Oliver is back on and that's a very good sign. The Hawkes stable have sent Himalaya Dream to Flemington which is another good sign as this stable is very astute in their placement of this type of horse. He was heavily backed last start and it's hard not to think he pleased the stable before and especially after the win! Great Esteem has been sent to Melbourne by the Chris Waller stable and although Himalaya Dream beat him comfortably in Sydney it is worth noting Great Esteem was off a 35 day break and would have required the run. The weight shift is 2kg in Great Esteem's favour. There will be nothing between the pair. Nevis has had two Australian runs and has had genuine excuses in two of the runs (slow post recovery, held up for most of the straight) whilst he won the other in a BM90 in Adelaide. Don't scoff because that win came off an incredible 420 days break and it's fair to assume this horse has quite a bit of upside. Phew!

Flemington Race 9. Track Condition: GOOD (3). Weather: FINE. RaceTime: AEDT 17:45, 05/03/2016

RACEMAPAntler Luggage Trophy BM90 1800m
Front Runners (5) Falago, (9) Himalaya Dream, (22) Tom Melbourne.
On Pacers (6) Spreadeagled, (7) Divan, (8) Great Esteem, (11) Nevis, (15) Dodging Bullets, (16) Rich River.
Mid Fielders (3) Auld Burns, (10) Doumaran, (12) Berisha, (13) Tuff Host, (17) Transfer Allowance.
Get Back (1) Abbasso, (2) Bass Strait, (4) Don Doremo, (14) Good Value, (18) Metaphorical, (20) Tenacitus, (21) Siegestor.
PACE COMMENTS Goodness gracious! I have three leaders, based on their normal patterns, but have a look at the seven on pacers I have listed. It's quite conceivable a couple of the on pacers will go forward to negate awkward barriers which will create a hectic early pace. Whenever there is a hectic early pace the back markers cannot be dismissed and that will the case here.
CHANCESAntler Luggage Trophy BM90 1800mOrderMargin
Spreadeagled PLUS: Four wins from ten career starts, three good track wins, receives cosy run from leading jockey. A 0
  MINUS: Extra 200 metres but by Irish sire who was sired by Danehill Dancer equals staying blood.    
Divan PLUS: Damien Oliver aboard positive change, should receive reasonable run off pace, 2400m winner so will be strong in the finish. B 0.5
  MINUS: Nil.    
Himalaya Dream PLUS: Three wins from seven fair good track runs, can lead or sit off pace, stable shift positive move. C 0.75
  MINUS: Meets Great Esteem 2kg worse at the weights.    
Great Esteem PLUS: Snowdens visiting Melbourne, distance winner, five good track wins, receives good run off pace, well weighted. D 1
  MINUS: Physical weight a slight concern this level.    
Nevis PLUS: One win from one fair Australian start, lightly raced improver, races well fresh with three wins from six runs. E 1.25
  MINUS: Could be pushed back from wide barrier.    
Quadrella Race# Flemington 5 March 2016
Flemington 6 ATA Bob Hoysted Handicap 1000m
Flemington 7 Australian Guineas 1600m
Flemington 8 Frances Tressady Stakes 1400m
Flemington 9 Antler Luggage Trophy BM90 1800m
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EXOTICS Antler Luggage Trophy BM90 1800m
Exacta

A: 15

B: 4 6 7 8 9 12 21

Trifecta

A: 15

B: 4 6 7 8 9 12 21

C: 4 6 7 8 9 12 21

First Four

A: 15

B: 4 6 7 8 9 12 21

C: 4 6 7 8 9 12 21

D: 4 6 7 8 9 12 21

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