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Flemington Race 9: Briseis Handicap 2000m

17/07/2015: Venture On doesn't mind a miler (1600m), having his first run over 2000m as they often race up close, which for one reason is why I am selecting Venture On to win. His ability on a wet track is going to be a big help, too. Forget the zero from his last start as he was caught wide and it was a definite forgive run. Commanding Time is a difficult horse to catch but if he cannot win this race, or at least run well, he will struggle to win city races. The expected wet track gives him his best chance. Freshwater Storm was just beaten by Coronation Shallan last start and that mare ran a bottler last Saturday in open company. The wet track is of some concern though. Clemo came from last with a freak rails run ride from C Newitt and from barrier four will again need luck, especially on a damp track. Shikarpour seemed to struggle on a good track and perhaps we should forgive that run and look to his previous win on a soft 6 at Ballarat.

Flemington Race 9. RaceTime: AEST 16:55, 18/07/2015

RACEMAPBriseis Handicap 2000m 
Front Runners (3) Lightenuff, (6) Commanding Time.
On Pacers (1) Cuban Fighter, (10) Shikarpour.
Mid Fielders (2) Freshwater Storm, (4) Clemo, (5) Trade Commissioner, (9) Black Tomahawk, (11) Crafty Cruiser, (12) Venture On, (13) Diamonds At Noon.
Get Back (7) Bagman, (8) Secessio.
PACE COMMENTS The pace will be quite leisurely as I only have four horses racing near the lead and I suspect they will slot into their usual spots fairly quickly. My problem horse is Venture On having his first start at this distance. Although I have him as a mid fielder a horse having his first at a distance can go forward more easily than over a shorter distance. I am gambling slightly towards this premise. The horse that really has to fire is Bagman in a race like this as he normally gets well back early.
CHANCESBriseis Handicap 2000mOrderMargin
Venture On PLUS: Three from twelve wet runs, forgive last run, gets good run off pace possibly. A 0
  MINUS: First distance run.    
Commanding Time PLUS: Five wins from twelve wet runs, four from eleven distance. B 0.5
  MINUS: Zero from five at track.    
Clemo PLUS: Huge last start win, first distance run might race closer, three from seven career runs, improver. C 0.75
  MINUS: Gets back, first distance run, unknown in wet.    
Shikarpour PLUS: Sits on pace, strong wet track run two starts ago. D 1.25
  MINUS: Hard to assess last run on good track, one from eight distance.    
Freshwater Storm PLUS: Coronation Shallan form line, C Williams aboard, one from four distance acceptable. E 2
  MINUS: Zero placings from three track runs, one from eight wet tracks, mid fielder.    
Quadrella Race# Flemington 18 July 2015
Flemington 6 Dalray Handicap 1100m
Flemington 7 Bruce Gadsden Handicap 1400m
Flemington 8 Flemington Event Staff Handicap 1600m
Flemington 9 Briseis Handicap 2000m
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