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Flemington Race 9: Crown Resorts Plate 1600m

05/11/2015: Excites Zelady ticks all the boxes unless you worry about the physical weight, which may have been the reason for his last start defeat, or perhaps the winner was just a better horse. Rock Forthe Ladies is the young improver of the race who does get back a fraction but if the track holds up he should be able to get into the mix late. Lord Atheneum will be out of my quadrellas if there is rain about as his zero from seven runs in the wet is too ordinary for me. Kourkam is the roughie of the race as he has Group 2 form through Suavto and Sertorius as per his strong Blamey Stakes run when he was backed and was pushed back early. Burning Front was on the edge of being dropped by yours truly as I have a query at the distance at this level with the physical weight but that man D Weir is the trainer and that says it all for this race.

Flemington Race 9. Track Condition: HEAVY (9). Weather: STORMS. RaceTime: AEDT 17:35, 05/11/2015

RACEMAPCrown Resorts Plate 1600m
Front Runners (5) Leveraction, (11) Sadaqa.
On Pacers 4) Burning Front, (13) Audino, (14) Excites Zelady, (15) Act Of Valour, (20) Prix D'Or.
Mid Fielders (1) Seul Spirit, (2) Electric Fusion, (3) Rock for the Ladies, (6) Lord Atheneum, (7) Kincaple Chief, (8) Kourkam, (10) Way Too Easy.
Get Back (9) Cordoba, (16) Aurum Spirit, (17) My Dancing Duel, (18) Distant Rock, (19) Zebrinz.
PACE COMMENTS I am tipping a leisurely pace is going to take place with Leveraction leading, as he often does at suitable distances, and Sadaqa possibly taking him on but at the worst sitting just behind. If that pattern is settled early they will ease up and slacken the pace. This might not be so bad for the on pacers as the likely front runners aren’t all that well fancied but I would be careful how I tackle the mid fielders. It looks like they will have to be better than average to give a couple of the well fancied on pacers, such as Excites Zelady and Burning Front, a start and a beating.
CHANCESCrown Resorts Plate 1600mOrderMargin
Excites Zelady PLUS: Three distance wins, has won in wet. A 0
  MINUS: Wide barrier could be an issue if forced to work.    
Rock Forthe Ladies PLUS: Two wins from two distance runs, three wins from six good track starts, could have been in Greys race. B 0.25
  MINUS: Gets back a fraction, unsure on a damp track.    
Lord Athenaeum PLUS: Two distance wins from five runs, five good track wins, heading for hat trick. C 0.75
  MINUS: Track must be good or I suspect might be scratched if rains come.    
Kourkam PLUS: Two distance wins, four good track wins, can handle soft going, D Oliver aboard. D 1.5
  MINUS: Runs mid field second up with big weight on possible wet track.    
Burning Front PLUS: Likes the track damp but has won three races on good tracks. E 1.75
  MINUS: A slight distance doubt this level with the weight.    
Quadrella Race# Flemington 5 November 2015
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Flemington 9 Crown Resorts Plate 1600m
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