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Flemington Race 9: Darren James Trophy 2500m

10/04/2015: Like many punters I am getting tired of Akzar as a betting proposition and even though he is a weight special if you use the handicappers ratings as a guide weights alone are not enough for some horses once they have had too many runs or are getting older. Akzar is at the crossroads for mine which is why I am going to select You Think So who will receive an awesome run off Sammy The Snake. The 3kg claim for J Bayliss brings him down to 51kg, the exact weight of his last win which was at this track and distance and a very helpful drop of 5.5kg when beaten last start by Crafty Cruiser. In his Flemington win he made use of his light weight defeating the recent Adelaide Cup winner Tanby and that’s good enough form for this race. Rawnaq, Martinvast and Crafty Cruiser finished within 0.5 of a length at their last meeting and should again finish around one another: it’s that sort of race. Place chances to Gotta Take Care (he’s a bit of a freak), Four Carat and Sammy The Snake.

Flemington Race 9. RaceTime: AEST 17:30, 11/04/2015

RACEMAP(Barriers)
Front Runners (8) Sammy The Snake.
On Pacers (5) You Think So.
Mid Fielders (7) Akzar, (9) Zimbali, (11) Crafty Cruiser.
Get Back (1) Martinvast, (2) Arch Fire, (3) Gotta Take Care, (4) High Design, (6) Rawnaq, (10) Waltzing To Win, (12) Four Carat.
PACE COMMENTS Sammy The Snake strolls to the lead with You Think So on his trail in the first one hundred metres and basically that’s that. There will be no spurts from any of the mid fielders as they normally jog along off the pace. The back markers and mid fielders have a big job ahead of them as the sprint for home will take place about five hundred metres from home and they will be left flat footed. For a horse like Akzar this is not good news but with the claim he has his chance to overcome the pace problem if his young jockey is awake and gets going a bit earlier than normal. The horse best suited, after the claim, is You Think So as all the favours will be his way.
CHANCESPlus and Minus FactorsOrderMargin
You Think So PLUS: Two from six track, one from one track and distance, gets great run, eight good track wins. A 0
  MINUS: 35 days.    
Akzar PLUS: Weight special via ratings after claim. B 1
  MINUS: Gets back, pace of race a problem not winning.    
Rawnaq PLUS: Crafty Cruiser, Martinvast formline. C 2.25
  MINUS: Basically a non winner.    
Martinvast PLUS: Rawnaq, Crafty Cruiser form line, placed three from three distance. D 2.5
  MINUS: Gets back, not winning races.    
Crafty Cruiser PLUS: Martinvast, Rawnaq formline. E 3
  MINUS: Weights don't favour him repeating.    
RISK HORSES 
RISKY Arch Fire (struggling form), Zimbali (class rise concerns), High Design (better in mares race).
OUTCLASSED Waltzing To Win.
Quadrella Race# Flemington 11 April 2015
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