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Flemington Race 9: @flemington VRC BM84 Handicap 1420m

The run by Audino in the Group 2 wfa Australia Stakes was a top effort for a horse basically outclassed. We can also forgive his drop back in distance the run before to an unsuitable 1000m from 1400m. This brings us back to his 1400m win at Flemington and with the claim for R Bayliss and the good draw he looks value around the double figure mark. Hero Master may have had a genuine excuse last start due to the fires around Euroa just prior to his last run. His trainer wondered if some smoke inhalation and dust may have contributed to his poor run. Give him this run to find out. Spector is an enigma but he does like this track and distance so in he goes as the run was actually full of merit. Gracious Prospect and Mannopoly don’t exactly have great career records that enthuse but on their recent runs they have to be entertained as chances. Place chances,thus wild win hopes, for Happy As Hell, Laohu and Stereosonic.

Flemington Race 9. RaceTime: AEDT 17:50, 31/01/2015

Front Runners (13) Use The Lot, (18) Laohu.
On Pacers (3) Audino, (9) Gracious Prospect, (12) Stereosonic.
Mid Fielders (1) Post D'France, (5) Specter, (6) Reddamour, (8) Mannopoly, (10) Hero Master, (14) Resistant, (15) Lord Wimble.
Get Back (2) Chile Express, (4) Happy As Hell, (7) Cross Of Gold, (11) Initiator, (16) Final Jest, (17) Petrify.
PACE COMMENTS Use The Lot and Laohu coming over from out wide will be the early scenario and because they will have to work early I suspect the pace will good. The on pacers, as usual will just slot in off the pace and wait their turn. As always the mid fielders will need a bit of luck but if the field spreads out early, as I believe it could, the main chances like Mannopoly, Hero Master and Specter will get their chance to win if good enough on the day.
CHANCESPlus and Minus FactorsOrderMargin
Audino PLUS: Five wins good tracks, 2 kg claim helps, excellent run wfa last start, class drop here off that run. A 0
  MINUS: One win ten distance runs anomaly as has won longer?    
Hero Master PLUS: Four from ten good tracks, six from thirteen career. B 0.25
  MINUS: 28 days break.    
Specter PLUS: Two from six track and distance. C 0.5
  MINUS: Two from eleven distance, career record three wins twenty five runs.    
Gracious Prospect PLUS: Last two track and distance runs strong. D 0.75
  MINUS: Two from seventeen distance, one from eight track.    
Mannopoly PLUS: Five wins good tracks, 3 kg claim, unsuitable drop back distance last run. E 1
  MINUS: 0 wins six runs track, mid fielder.    
RISKY Resistant (off 76 days this level at distance), Chile Express (impossible to follow), Lord Wimble and Post D’France (struggling to win a race), Initiator (distance?), Happy As Hell (off 70 days harder, place chance), Use The Lot (needs couple of runs usually), Reddamour (distance this class).
OUTCLASSED Petrify, Final Jest.
Quadrella Race# Flemington 31 January 2015
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