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Flemington Race 9: Hong Kong Jockey Club Trophy BM90 1800m

06/03/2015: I have Phantom Brew on top because via the race map he looks to receive an enormous free kick sitting off Spacecraft, who these days is impossible to follow but then when was he? His defeat of Index Linked was quite a run so due respect is given for that effort.My niggling doubt is that he was scratched last week and you wonder what the problem was. Harveys True Heart is one of those worrying horses you don’t really trust but the Index Linked run last start was good enough to feature here. Happy As Hell is hard to catch at this level but his unbeaten distance statistic is a real positive and his run in the Kilmore Cup was strong enough for this race. Verdant has a big task ahead of him with the weight second up over the distance but at the least he represents the class of the race, just, and he will receive a soft run back on the fence. Carlo Bugatti is a complete mystery but we have to respect the Williams camp when they import such a lightly raced horse. I have slotted him in because the rest of the field, starting with Priority Road, have more convictions than a prison full of inmates. Place chances to Single and Bec Said No Credit.

Flemington Race 9. RaceTime: AEDT 17:45, 07/03/2015

RACEMAP(Barriers)
Front Runners (13) Spacecraft.
On Pacers (7) Phantom Brew, (8) Don Doremo.
Mid Fielders (1) Carlo Bugatti, (3) Verdant, (4) Single, (5) Fluorescent, (6) Harveys True Heart, (9) Post D'France, (10) Osvaldo, (15) Priority Road.
Get Back (2) Aurum Spirit, (11) Wingman, (12) Happy As Hell, (14) Bec Said No Credit.
PACE COMMENTS Not much doubt Spacecraft will lead with Phantom Brew taking the trail and most likely Don Doremo will move forward early as well. The rest will be bumping and moving around at the back. Gee, the favours Phantom Brew will receive is going to be awesome and I wouldn't be decrying the likely run Verdant might get along the fence as they straighten. Harveys True Heart will be off the pace seeking a split but both Bec Said No Credit and Happy As Hell will be coming wide. If Luke Nolen on Phantom Brew waits patiently the back markers have the job ahead of them.
CHANCESPlus and Minus FactorsOrderMargin
Phantom Brew PLUS: Perfect run in transit, Index Linked form line strong, track winner. A 0
  MINUS: Scratched last week, huge weight.    
Harveys True Heart PLUS: Index Linked form, races well at track without starring, dry tracker no good in wet. B 1.25
  MINUS: Gets back, doesn't win too often.    
Happy As Hell PLUS: Strong run Kilmore Cup, C Williams keeps ride, three from three distance. C 1.5
  MINUS: Three from seven wet tracks, two from thirteen good tracks.    
Verdant PLUS: Good first up run, suited by distance rise, Index Linked form, gets reasonable run off pace. D 1.75
  MINUS: Huge weight second up distance.    
Carlo Bugatti PLUS: Williams camp bought him. E 1.5
  MINUS: First up this distance.    
Priority Road PLUS: Out of luck last run finishing well, six wins twenty runs. F 2.25
  MINUS: Zero from five distance, gets back.    
RISK HORSES 
RISKY Osvaldo (ordinary first up, wait and see), Spacecraft (have to risk every time), The Wingman (not here second up this distance), Post D'France (impossible to follow), Aurum Spirit (gets too far back for this level.
OUTCLASSED Fluorescent.
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Flemington 9 Hong Kong Jockey Club Trophy BM90 1800m
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