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Flemington Race 9: Metricon Trophy 1700m

11/12/2015: I find myself selecting the favourite Yellen and second favourite Felicienne as my AB selections even though my race map causes me to question the selections. It is difficult not be impressed with Yellen's terrific four lengths win carrying 59.5kg (she could have carried 62kg and still won) at Moonee Valley. On the basis of being able to carry 62kg she drops 8kg in my assessment (I know it's an assumption but that’s form work) and that's a big equalizer against the suspected poor early pace. Felicienne drops 4kg plus the winning margin assessment on her strong Moonee Valley win so she rates against the pace as well but not as good as Yellen. I originally had Marli Magic on top, especially after the claim, but I keep thinking about how the trainer and jockey planned to come wide in the straight for her win last start. They calculated where the best going was and were right. It might not happen today. Form wise that's it: only three chances however in one set of quaddies I am taking the field simply because my race map suggests a possible upset. A troublesome race for yours truly.

Flemington Race 9. Track Condition: GOOD (3). Weather: FINE. RaceTime: AEDT 17:25, 12/12/2015

RACEMAPMetricon Trophy 1700m
Front Runners (12) Marli Magic.
On Pacers (7) Sari, (9) Mamwaazel, (10) To Be Honest.
Mid Fielders (1) Inoshowen, (5) Felicienne, (13) Yellen.
Get Back (2) Quicksilver Lass, (3) Sabor A Triunfo, (4) Winta Chiller, (6) Ring Da Belle, (8) Sea Spray, (11) Nippinski.
PACE COMMENTS With one front runner, Marli Magic, and three on pacers (Sari, Mamwaazel and To Be Honest) there doesn't seem to be too much pace about early which is definite concern for the mid fielder favourite Yellen who is drawn wide as an added problem. I have Felicienne as a midfielder as well and she will need to be good, too. By this race win punters will be able to assess if today's track is biased towards the front runners or the get back, run on types. Quadrella punters really need to be alert before the first leg.
CHANCESMetricon Trophy 1700mOrderMargin
Yellen PLUS: Two wins from four on good tracks, one win from one start at the distance, drops handy 5.5 kg on strong win. A 0
  MINUS: Possible slow early pace a problem.    
Felicienne PLUS: Two good track wins, 1.5kg claim handy providing 4kg weight drop on strong wim. B 0.75
  MINUS: Possible slow early pace a problem.    
Marli Magic PLUS: Likely lone leader, handily weighted after 3kg claim, lightly raced improver. C 1.25
  MINUS: Found right lane last start.    
Quadrella Race# Flemington 12 December 2015
Flemington 6 Plenary Group Handicap 2000m
Flemington 7 AVHPA Vic Trophy 1600m
Flemington 8 Western Health Foundation Handicap 1200m
Flemington 9 Metricon Trophy 1700m
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EXOTICS Metricon Trophy 1700m
Exacta

A: 10

B: 3 11

Trifecta

A: 10

B: 3 11

C: 2 3 4 9 11 12

First Four

A: 10

B: 3 11

C: 2 3 4 9 11 12

D: 2 3 4 9 11 12

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