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Flemington Race 9: My Kitchen Rules Stakes 1400m

11/03/2016: This is quite a tricky race for a number of reasons. Firstly, the pace is a concern, secondly, we have two mares (Jessy Belle, Coronation Shallan) with chances and thirdly, the second uppers Jimando and Tristram's Sun might be short of a run and Petrology and Coronation Shallan are first up. Balancing it all I have decided to back the stable move with the seven day back up for Jessy Belle, a spell break this mare has never had. I was mindful she could have been considered for the Schweppervescence Stakes where she would have been considered well weighted. The fact she is third up and might have a fitness edge swayed me as well. For the life of me I cannot catch Petrology but in all fairness his 1400m statistics (zero placings from six runs) shouldn't be considered as he has been mixing it with Group 1 and Group 2 horses. This race is way below that standard so here I go and in he goes for second. Jimando has won second up twice and although his first up ran was ordinary perhaps it was more the straight track that provided the margin. He is at a very respectable $13 for the win and is perhaps the value of the race. Tried And Tired is on his last chance for me as I am starting to think he may have lost the kick for winning races. However, maybe I am wrong and he will receive a terrific run through the race which will assist the fitness issue around his 28 days break. Yesterday's Songs faces a task back in the field but then again my AB selections are right beside him and fitness wise he has an advantage over several other runners. If I am finding a spot for Yesterday's Songs Sweet As Bro must also be included. Have a deep think about value in this leg of the quaddie: I will be.

Flemington Race 9. Track Condition: GOOD (4). Weather: OCAST. RaceTime: AEDT 17:45, 12/03/2016

RACEMAPMy Kitchen Rules Stakes 1400m
Front Runners (6) Coronation Shallan.
On Pacers (3) Tristram's Sun, (4) Jimando, (5) Tried And Tired.
Mid Fielders (1) Sweet As Bro, (2) Yesterday's Songs, (7) Petrology, (9) Jessy Belle.
Get Back (8) Smokin' Joey.
PACE COMMENTS Coronation Shallan will lead this field unless the connections on Tried And Tired are keen to surge forward. With Tristram's Sun and Jimando taking it easy off the pace I am envisaging a fair pace but not really hectic. This will cause the mid fielders some issues and especially the back marker Smokin' Joey. Watch the value aspect carefully.
CHANCESMy Kitchen Rules Stakes 1400mOrderMargin
Jessy Belle PLUS: Two track and distance wins, handles good and soft tracks, ready third up. A 0
  MINUS: Gets back a fraction.    
Petrology PLUS: Huge class drop from last three runs, handles first up runs, dampness not a major concern. B 0.25
  MINUS: Gets back.    
Jimando PLUS: Two second up wins from five attempts, two wins at the track and distance. C 0.5
  MINUS: First up ordinary but perhaps straight track    
Tried And Tired PLUS: Three distance wins, receives perfect on pace run, races well this track and distance. D 0.75
  MINUS: Not winning races, 28 days break a query.    
Yesterday's Songs PLUS: Two wins from six distances with excuses for two of the flops, D Oliver stays on board, track and distance winner. E 1
  MINUS: Gets back.    
Sweet As Bro PLUS: Has won twice second up from four attempts, distance no issue, great first up run when normally needs first up runs. F 1.25
  MINUS: Gets back.    
       
Quadrella Race# Flemington 12 March 2016
Flemington 6 Lexus Newmarket Handicap 1200m
Flemington 7 Australian Cup 2000m
Flemington 8 Schweppervescence Trophy 1600m
Flemington 9 My Kitchen Rules Stakes 1400m
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EXOTICS My Kitchen Rules Stakes 1400m
Exacta

A: 5 6 7

B: 2 5 6 7

Trifecta

A: 5 6 7

B: 2 5 6 7

C: 2 5 6 7 8 9

First Four

A: 5 6 7

B: 2 5 6 7

C: 2 5 6 7 8 9

D: 2 5 6 7 8 9

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