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Flemington Race 9: TAB.com.au Stakes 1400m

30/10/2015: This is a very even race and luck, pace and track bias will play its part by the last race. Dothraki only has to handle the straight track (some horses just don't and that's it) to be a strong chance considering he will sit off the pace whereas a couple of his opponents will get back early. Delectation finished over the top of Churchill Dancer last start as you would expect for a horse who had previously run second to Brazen Beau in the Group 1 Coolmore Stakes. Last start he ran second to Chautauqua however he did only finish ahead of the enigmatic Knoydart hence as much as the run was terrific it wasn't outstanding. His get back style is the main problem. Churchill Dancer is a gun at Flemington and he will certainly get a lovely sit during the race similar to Dothraki. Generalife was terrific in Group 1 races in Sydney and Brisbane last campaign and there he was running on first up but that's his problem: he is always running on and needs luck and the pace to be spot on. Under The Louvre has the same problem as Delectation and Generalife and although their efforts are excellent for the wallets of their owners it’s not so for the win punters. As I said earlier: this is an even race and is dependent on a number of factors.

Flemington Race 9. RaceTime: AEDT 17:20, 31/10/2015

RACEMAPTAB.com.au Stakes 1400m
Front Runners (10) Countryman.
On Pacers (6) Kuro, (8) Dothraki, (11) Churchill Dancer, (13) Eclair Choice, (14) Hot Snitzel.
Mid Fielders (9) Moment Of Change, (12) Fontelina.
Get Back (1) Generalife, (2) Under The Louvre, (3) Delectation, (5) Knoydart, (7) Kaepernick.
PACE COMMENTS Although Countryman is the lone leader he will have company sitting just off his shoulder and that convinces me the pace should be strong enough, overall, to give the back markers their chance. However, be aware, that sometimes in the 1200 Flemington sprints the pace can slacken mid race thus the get back types can be disadvantaged. The classic runner in this scenario will be Under The Louvre, whose jockey will need to concentrate, so just be sensible with the price you accept if you back him.
CHANCESTAB.com.au Stakes 1400mOrderMargin
Dothraki PLUS: Winner at only start this track, four wins on good tracks, three distance wins, Snowden team. A 0
  MINUS: First run on the straight track.    
Delectation PLUS: Two seconds from two runs at the track and distance including Eskimo Prince Stakes, Waller Bowman combination. B 0.25
  MINUS: Gets back in field and will need pace to suit.    
Churchill Dancer PLUS: Won four times from seven runs at this track and distance including the Bobbie Lewis Quality, five good track wins, class drop helps. C 0.5
  MINUS: Nil.    
Generalife PLUS: Been very close in Group 1 races without winning, seven wins on good tracks. D 1
  MINUS: Gets back in field and will need pace to suit.    
Under The Louvre PLUS: Six wins at the distance, four good track wins, just beaten at Group 1 level two runs ago. E 1.25
  MINUS: Gets back in field and will need pace to suit.    
EXACTATAB.com.au Stakes 1400m
A Selections 3 Dothraki.
B Selections 6 Delectation, 10 Churchill Dancer, 4 Generalife, 5 Under The Louvre.
Cost 1 x 4 = 4 units
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TRIFECTATAB.com.au Stakes 1400m
A Selections 3 Dothraki, 6 Delectation, 10 Churchill Dancer.
B Selections 3 Dothraki, 6 Delectation, 10 Churchill Dancer.
C Selections 3 Dothraki, 6 Delectation, 10 Churchill Dancer, 4 Generalife, 5 Under The Louvre.
Cost 3 x 2 x 3 = 18 units
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FIRST FOURTAB.com.au Stakes 1400m
A Selections 3 Dothraki, 6 Delectation, 10 Churchill Dancer.
B Selections 3 Dothraki, 6 Delectation, 10 Churchill Dancer.
C Selections 3 Dothraki, 6 Delectation, 10 Churchill Dancer, 4 Generalife, 5 Under The Louvre.
D Selections 3 Dothraki, 6 Delectation, 10 Churchill Dancer, 4 Generalife, 5 Under The Louvre.
Cost 3 x 2 x 3 x 2 = 36 units
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Quadrella Race# Flemington 31 October 2015
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