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Gold Coast Race 5: Southbank Insurance Brokers Quality 1800m

19/06/2015: Darci Be Good is an each way special, especially if the track remains heavy. Although I have him as a mid-fielder he could slot closer over the distance and if he does the place side of the equations looks super. Tornado Miss is a mare against the boys but showed she can handle the boys by finishing ahead of Darci Be Good on a good track last start. She can handle the heavy but the concern her win was in weaker company. Trakstar isn’t all that well weighted using the handicappers ratings but she wasn’t all that far behind Tornado Miss and Darci Be Good so he’s in the mix. The biggest question of the race revolves around The Offer. If he is half fit he'll stroll in from back in the field. I am buoyed by the fact Gai Waterhouse is running him first up in Queensland. It’s a long way to come to race on a heavy track first up when perhaps a pipe opener in Sydney could have been an option. We're not sure how popular this race is with the big punters, but it's a good idea to watch the big betting on this race if it starts to attract those punters. If he drifts alarmingly have more on Darci Be Good each way.

Gold Coast Race 5. RaceTime: AEST 14:37, 20/06/2015

RACEMAP(Barriers)
Front Runners (4) Any Day Will Do, (8) Tornado Miss.
On Pacers (2) Lucky Lago, (3) Addictive Habit, (10) Darci Be Good, (11) Made To Order.
Mid Fielders (1) Grayson Square, (7) Lady Belladonna, (10) Darci Be Good.
Get Back (5) Epic, (6) Jetset Lad, (9) The Offer.
PACE COMMENTS There seems to be enough early speed to indicate that pace will not be a problem in this race. Just the same on a heavy eight the back markers (The Offer, Jetset Lad and Epic) will need to be every bit as good as their ratings suggest. Don't totally risk them (we found that out with Smokin' Joey last week) but demand reasonable odds.
CHANCESPlus and Minus FactorsOrderMargin
Darci Be Good PLUS: Two from four heavy, distance no issue, maps well, last heavy track run won. A 0
  MINUS: Nil.    
Tornado Miss PLUS: Two from seven wet, likely leader. B 1.25
  MINUS: Slight distance query.    
Trakstar PLUS: Wide all way last slow track run, just beaten slow run before, five from twenty third up and deeper. C 1.75
  MINUS: Midfielder not well weighted on ratings.    
The Offer PLUS: Four from five heavy, class of race. Gai W first up Qld interesting move. D 2
  MINUS: First up distance off 254 days.    
Addictive Habit PLUS: Six from sixteen wet with thirteen placings, Nzer not suited by wfa runs in Oz. E 2.5
  MINUS: Dropped out both Oz runs hard to assess.    
RISK HORSES 
RISKY Jetset Lad (no star in heavy, up in weight and distance, 59th career run), Epic (one from nine in heavy, big run last start but on good), Lucky Lago (one from seven in wet, mare versus males no help either), Grayson Square (no wet form, distance query), Anyday Will Do (one from seven wet).
OUTCLASSED Made To Order, Lady Bella Donna.
Quadrella Race# Gold Coast 20 June 2015
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