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Gold Coast Race 7: Sky Racing Tattersall's Club Tiara 1400m

19/06/2015: Wow, what a beauty to finish the Group 1 circuit for the racing year. I am an unabashed fan of Catkins as all this mighty mare knows is to fight and try and that’s all I ask of a horse. Hazard beat her simply because of fitness and this time around Catkins is fitter and has the gun draw. Lumosty was never out of trouble being caught wide and being checked against Srikandi in the Group 1 Stradbroke yet finished only four lengths off the winner. With weight changes not an issue the barrier draws come into play and Srikandi has lost out there. Najoom slaughtered Miss Cover Girl as an 86 rater and is now considered a 96 rater versus Catkins at 110 or 7kg difference but the actual difference is 1.5kg so Najoom needs to be spot on to beat Catkins, at the weights. Last week I declared Real Surreal as the each way bet for the quadrella races but I didn’t think that at the 1000 metre mark as she was way, way back much further than I had anticipated. What followed was a Winx like victory though I am the first to admit the class of race was weaker. Don’t forget she finished beaten 3.3 lengths in a Group 1 Coolmore Stakes five runs ago at her seventh race start. Avoid Lightning is a trier but I just worry about the last 100 metres as Catkins should have her covered on the Millie Fox Stakes run. Solicit has really fired since joining the G Ryan stable and although it’s difficult to line up Peace Force for this race she beat Tukiyo home last start and that horse was just beaten by Real Surreal last Saturday. The roughie placegetter is Bound For Earth. Yes, this is a race and a half.

Gold Coast Race 7. RaceTime: AEST 15:57, 20/06/2015

RACEMAP(Barriers)
Front Runners (3) Catkins, (11) Tarloshan.
On Pacers (1) Avoid Lightning, (4) Jazz Song, (7) Solicit, (9) Thump, (12) Najoom, (14) Hazard, (20) Srikandi.
Mid Fielders (2) Estonian Princess, (8) Bound For Earth, (10) Lumosty, (13) Diademe, (15) Rose Of Choice, (16) Real Surreal.
Get Back (5) Politeness, (17) Peggy Jean, (18) Peron, (19) Dublin Lass.
PACE COMMENTS Catkins and Tarloshan lead all things being equal but they might not have it their own way with Najoom, Hazard, Thump and Srikandi drawn wide and most likely searching for a spot early. This means the pace will be solid enough for a back marker to make ground so forget about pace as an issue, again.
CHANCESPlus and Minus FactorsOrderMargin
Catkins PLUS: Her record says it all. Absolute trier. A 0
  MINUS: Nil    
Lumosty PLUS: Chequered run in Stradbroke forgivable easy wins prior. One from one in wet. Drawn to win. B 0.5
  MINUS: Nil.    
Srikandi PLUS: Two from four distance, two from two in wet, won eight from twelve career. C 1
  MINUS: Wide barrier.    
Solicit PLUS: Two from five wet, two from five distance, G Ryan newcomer. D 1.25
  MINUS: 28 days break minor concern.    
Najoom PLUS: Career five from seven, two from two distance range, Gai Waterhouse improver. E 1.75
  MINUS: Poorly weighted, may have to work early.    
Real Surreal PLUS: Four from ten career, big run last start. F 2
  MINUS: Four from ten good track needs drier for optimum run.    
RISK HORSES 
RISKY Hazard (wide barrier and poorly weighted, beat Catkins because fitter), Diademe (struggling), Avoid Lightning (last 100m serious concern and weights against Catkins), Thump ( just a level below this group perhaps), Politeness (huge finish needed against strong field), Peron (similar to Poilteness), Peggy Jean (similar to Politeness and Peron.
OUTCLASSED Estonian Princess, Rose Of Choice, Dublin Lass, Tarloshan, Jazz Song.
Quadrella Race# Gold Coast 20 June 2015
Gold Coast 5 Southbank Insurance Brokers Quality 1800m
Gold Coast 6 Carlton Draught Tattersall's Cup 2400m
Gold Coast 7 Sky Racing Tattersall's Club Tiara 1400m
Gold Coast 8 Tattersall's 150th Anniversary Stakes 1200m
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