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Ipswich Race 5: Provincial Stayers Series Final 2150m

12/06/2015: As stated in my race map comments luck in running will be the decider in this race. At good each way odds I am selecting Wearing Wings simply because he will be close to the pace and isn't drawn near the car park. Wimpole Street looks to have an abysmal strike rate but considering his failure on wet tracks and he has one win from ten starts fresh it is better to assess him on this distance and track condition. He has two from his last three runs around this distance with a flop in between at $101, a forgivable run. Kobi Creek is a lightly race improver and from his good draw will feature in the finish based on his run behind Wimpole Street and the third in the Caloundra Cup. I'm Hector seems better at 1800m but if he settles in off the pace, as he will from barrier two, the soft run and a good split could be the game changer to allow a win at the extra distance. That'llbgood has the task ahead off 35 days and a shocking barrier but a trickle of early money suggests he is fancied to repeat his defeat of I'm Hector two runs ago. This is such an even race so go as wide as you can in the quaddie. Place chances for the trifecta/first four punters are all horses bar my outclassed runners. In other words it's a raffle.

Ipswich Race 5. RaceTime: AEST 15:07, 13/06/2015

RACEMAP(Barriers)
Front Runners (1) Strategic Shadow, (5) Forelock.
On Pacers (3) Kobi Creek, (4) Wearing Wings, (8) Holly Holy, (15) In Masquerade, (16) Endless Puzzle.
Mid Fielders (2) I'm Hector, (6) Barge And Charge, (11) Exploded, (13) Stop Crying.
Get Back (7) Rocbolt, (9) Harbour Springs, (10) Eulo, (12) Pop 'N' Scotch, (14) Kaiser Franzz, (18) Wimpole Street, (19) Gotta Zip, (20) That'llbgood.
PACE COMMENTS There should be enough pace early from my official on pacers, as some will go forward if they jump swiftly, and the front runners are drawn close to the fence and aren't likely to give that advantage away too quickly. I suspect luck in running is more of an issue than pace for this event.
CHANCESPlus and Minus FactorsOrderMargin
Wearing Wings PLUS: Beaten by I'm Hector 0.4 length, three from thirteen good tracks, on pacer. A 0
  MINUS: Distance issue.    
Wimpole Street PLUS: Two from three distance, strong last run beating Kobi Creek, dry tracker, improving satyer. B 0.25
  MINUS: Zero from eleven wet tracks, bad barrier but gets back possibly negated issue.    
Kobi Creek PLUS: Two distance wins four runs with two seconds, another improving stayer C 0.5
  MINUS: One win good tracks but perhaps unsuitable distance for some.    
That'llbgood PLUS: Beat I'm Hector easily two runs ago. Four from eight wet tracks D 1.5
  MINUS: One from eleven dry tracks.    
I'm Hector PLUS: Drawn well just needing split, two from two quinella at track, lightly race improver. E 1.75
  MINUS: Distance an issue.    
RISK HORSES 
RISKY Nil.
OUTCLASSED Stop Crying, Exploded, Eulo, Barge And Charge, Tampere and Kaiser Franz.
Quadrella Race# Ipswich 13 June 2015
Ipswich 5 Provincial Stayers Series Final 2150m
Ipswich 6 Ipswich Cup 2150m
Ipswich 7 Eye Liner Stakes 1350m
Ipswich 8 Gai Waterhouse Classic 1350m
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