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Ipswich Race 6: Ipswich Cup 2150m

12/06/2015: When you look at the good track form of Darci Be Good, Volhere and Danchai, the three favourites, you start heading back to the class horse of the race Banca Mo, who seems to win on any track conditions and loves a bit of distance. He will do me at the good each way odds. The positive move north for Danchai from the C Waller stable reads well and it looks as if he is coming to hand quickly this campaign. Darci Be Good is honest enough but at start number forty seven I worry his legs might be getting beyond a race like this. Volkhere fits into almost exactly the same slot as Darci Be Good: you would love to own them but for win punters you wonder. Baligari was unlucky two runs ago and last start had every chance on face value but I suspect he is a better dry tracker and the soft track might have been the real problem. Shotover River has form at this track with two wins from four runs and likes the distance range. He's the knockout chance down in the weights.

Ipswich Race 6. RaceTime: AEST 15:47, 13/06/2015

RACEMAP(Barriers)
Front Runners (11) Hi Son, (12) Volkhere, (13) Shotover River.
On Pacers (2) Danchai, (4) Baligari, (5) Banca Mo, (6) Darci Be Good, (9) Kurtley.
Mid Fielders (8) Noisy Ocean, (10) Miss Husson.
Get Back (1) No Tricks, (3) Bachelor Zeel, (7) Vodnik.
PACE COMMENTS Amazingly my front runners are drawn next to one another and any one of them can lead depending on what happens early and who jumps best. I don't see my on pacers challenging for the lead as they will burn petrol trying to get past all three so there they sit just waiting. I would be giving the mid fielders and back markers a miss as they will need to be really good to win pace wise and their form isn't that strong anyway.
CHANCESPlus and Minus FactorsOrderMargin
Banca Mo PLUS: Twelve wins thirty three career runs, handles all conditions, distance range perfect, on pacer. A 0
  MINUS: Nil. Genuine racehorse.    
Baligari PLUS: Unlucky two runs ago, ready fourth up, very astute trainer. B 0.5
  MINUS: Distance query.    
Shotover River PLUS: Two from four track, two from six distance, four good track wins, improver this level at distance. C 1
  MINUS: Class rise but does have significant weight drop to compensate.    
Danchai PLUS: One from two distance, C Waller traveller, well drawn, gets gun run. D 1.25
  MINUS: One win fifteen good track runs.    
Darci Be Good PLUS: In form, drawn to get good run. E 1.5
  MINUS: Last win heavy track, had many career runs tired legs for win perhaps.    
Volkhere PLUS: Likely leader on pacer, second to Pornichet Toowoomba, distance range suits. F 2
  MINUS: Like Darci Be Good re career runs, not won nine starts with some runs equal this class or less.    
RISK HORSES 
RISKY Kurtley, Bachelor Zeel.
OUTCLASSED His Son (not winning), Noisy Ocean (needs weaker, had fifty seven career runs), Miss Husson (mare versus males that seem stronger this level), Vodnik (seems covered by Shotover River from two runs ago).
Quadrella Race# Ipswich 13 June 2015
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