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Ipswich Race 8: Gai Waterhouse Classic 1350m

12/06/2015: Real Surreal is the each way bet of the day in the quaddie legs as a 92 rater against my second choice Sister Emma rated at 77 which suggests there should be 7.5 kg between them at the weights yet the difference is only 1 kg. Sister Emma is unbeaten at the track and distance plus she gets a terrific run off the pace from barrier two and on these two major factors I have her second pick but only just.I cannot quite see Champagne Cath as a 90 rater these days as she is struggling to win races but the ability on her day is there and you must always give C Waller extra thoughts when he travels north. Refer has often raced in tough races so her record looks a bit ordinary but it’s her distance stats that brings her into contention. Fare Well didn't finish too far off Real Surreal last start and why shouldn't she get close again? Mywayorthehighway is lightly raced and on her Group 3 win last campaign and strong effort last start you wonder why she is $26 for the win. Saturn Rock is a place chance but I just cannot have her for the win spot these days at this level.

Ipswich Race 8. RaceTime: AEST 17:02, 13/06/2015

Front Runners (9) Champagne Cath, (13) Mywayorthehighway.
On Pacers (14) Tukiyo.
Mid Fielders (1) Discreet, (2) Sister Emma, (4) Real Surreal.
Get Back (4) Little Brown Horse, (5) A Fine Drop Of Red, (6) Slots, (7) Fare Well, (8) Grey Countess, (11) Saturn Rock, (12) Write Cheek.
PACE COMMENTS The back markers are going to have problems in this race as I don't see the early pace as being much more than mundane because my mid fielders will slot into their positions as the front runners and on pacers casually move for the lead and their respective positions. After about two hundred metres it will be drop the anchor time until the sprint begins about 500 metres from home.
CHANCESPlus and Minus FactorsOrderMargin
Real Surreal PLUS: Wide first up from wide barrier fitter for the run, three from nine good tracks. A 0
  MINUS: Nil.    
Sister Emma PLUS: Unbeaten track and distance, mid field position will suit, five from fourteen good tracks. B 1.25
  MINUS: Nil.    
Fare Well PLUS: Run top races in better NSW class, 0.2 lengths behind Real Surreal first up. C 1.5
  MINUS: Three wins from twenty three career not flash, one from sixteen good tracks.    
Mywayorthehighway PLUS: One from two distance, lightly raced improver, can lead, last run strong. D 2
  MINUS: Not rated highly but only had eight runs.    
Refer PLUS: Three from nine at distance, class drop significant. E 2.25
  MINUS: Two from nineteen distance, career record below average.    
Champagne Cath PLUS: C Waller to Queensland, three from twelve good tracks, three from fifteen career passable. F 2.5
  MINUS: Not won for number of starts.    
RISKY Tukiyo (distance query), Little Brown Horse (one win from twelve this season, lesser class better chance), Discreet (struggling), Write Cheek (defeated by Little Brown Horse last start, weaker grade needed), Slots (distance query this level).
OUTCLASSED Grey Countess, A Fine Drop Of Red.
Quadrella Race# Ipswich 13 June 2015
Ipswich 5 Provincial Stayers Series Final 2150m
Ipswich 6 Ipswich Cup 2150m
Ipswich 7 Eye Liner Stakes 1350m
Ipswich 8 Gai Waterhouse Classic 1350m
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