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Moonee Valley Q2 Race 7: Dilmah Exceptional The Vase 2040m

23/10/2015: Due to most of the runners not having distance experience makes this a bit of a guess race but I feel our guesses won't be too far off the mark. Tarzino was considered the run of the race from a VRC Derby point of view post race and there's no doubt he was going to finish at least second in the Caulfield Guineas but was badly chopped out of contention. His get back style is an issue at the tighter Moonee Valley track but he has to go on top all things said. Sovereign Nation ran on strongly in the Group 1 Caulfield Guineas to finish just over two lengths from Press Statement and that should be good enough for the Stutt's Stakes winner, at this track, to notch up a win. Jameka's run in the Thousand Guineas was huge as she jumped awkwardly, over raced and ended up seven wide on the home turn. It's worth noting D Oliver has stuck with her so let's give her a chance in this race. Being by an Irish sire has me believing the longer distance will be suitable. I have just about had enough of Pasadena Girl this time in but all told she deserves one more chance, depending on price as far as I am concerned. The unknown quantity is Tally who slaughtered a weak maiden field last start and being sired by Irish sire Street Cry has me including him as a chance.

Moonee Valley Q2 Race 7. RaceTime: AEDT 16:10, 24/10/2015

RACEMAPDilmah Exceptional The Vase 2040m
Front Runners (8) Tally.
On Pacers (3) Shards, (5) Jameka, (6) Red Alto.
Mid Fielders (1) Pasadena Girl, (2) Kentucky Flyer, (8) Hierachal, (9) Assertive Star.
Get Back (4) Sugaronne, (7) Sovereign Nation, (10) Tarzino, (11) Last Bullet.
PACE COMMENTS In a race like this where the runners have little, if any experience, at the distance it is difficult to assess the actual pace with any authority. For that reason I am going to suggest we just assume the race will be more about who actually runs the distance than pace.
CHANCESDilmah Exceptional The Vase 2040mOrderMargin
Tarzino PLUS: Huge and unlucky run in the Caulfield Guineas, classic young improver VRC Derby bound. A 0
  MINUS: Gets well back early therefore needing good pace.    
Sovereign Nation PLUS: Great Caulfield Guineas run, winner this track in Stutt Stakes big help. B 0.25
  MINUS: Gets back in run.    
Jameka PLUS: Big run last start in fillies Group 1 race, can race on pace, breeding suggests distance suitable. C 0.75
  MINUS: Poor win record, filly versus males.    
Pasadena Girl PLUS: Group 1 winner, huge run last start was a forgivable effort. D 1
  MINUS: Keeps running on from near last but not winning.    
Tally PLUS: Classic improver off easy win in weaker class, breeding suggests distance will suit. E 1.5
  MINUS: Class rise from maiden event.    
Quadrella Race# Moonee Valley Q2 24 October 2015
Moonee Valley Q2 7 Dilmah Exceptional The Vase 2040m
Moonee Valley Q2 8 Schweppes Crystal Mile 1600m
Moonee Valley Q2 9 W.S. Cox Plate 2040m
Moonee Valley Q2 10 G1X.com.au Stakes 1600m
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