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Moonee Valley Race 6: Antler Luggage Vobis Gold Star 1500m

23/01/2015: A very tricky race to say the least. Weights experts will drool for Turnitaround as under the special weights he is well handicapped however race mappers will suggest he might have problems getting over early and if he does will have to work. Anfitriona (unusually led first up and wide home turn last run) and King Of Manners (wide last run) read well on the more forgiving Moonee Valley track as they seem to like softer conditions. Turf Crusher is the new kid on the block who is doing absolutely nothing wrong and this step up in class isn’t actually all that tough to overcome. Add Artie’s Shore (lame last start), Dainty Miss and Lucky Paddy for the race exotics as they can place without any surprises.

Moonee Valley Race 6. RaceTime: AEDT 15:55, 24/01/2015

Front Runners (2) Safety Peg, (8)Turf Crusher, (9) Dainty Miss.
On Pacers (11) Docking, (12) Profit Share, (13) Hong Kong Captain.
Mid Fielders (3) Mattan, (5) Gambaccini, (7) Artie's Shore, (10) Turnitaround.
Get Back (1) Boart, (4) Lucky Paddy, (6) King Of Manners, (14) Anfitriona.
PACE COMMENTS The race patterns of several runners in this race are inconsistent and it’s really an issue if they jump cleanly or even want to. I have little doubt the pace will be solid as one or two of my on pacers will most likely surge forward early. This will suit most of the get back types though, of course, they will need luck in running or be strong out wide. I suspect Turnitaround is going to be in trouble during the run as he doesn’t have the pace to lead and if he drops back he is going to have to circle the field. It will be an ask with 59kg.
CHANCESPlus and Minus FactorsOrderMargin
Anfitriona PLUS: Wide home turn last run, third up ready to win, early pace assists, softer MV track suits. A 0
  MINUS: One win eight good track runs, gets back.    
King Of Manners PLUS: One from one track, forgive last run wide, The Bowler form line good, softer MV track suits. B 0.25
  MINUS: Chronic get back type.    
Turf Crusher PLUS: Two from two career both wins easy enough has upside, drops 3kg on last run, goes forward early. C 0.75
  MINUS: Class rise perhaps?    
Turnitaround PLUS: Well weighted under set conditions, two from nine third up or deeper. D 1.25
  MINUS: Two wins fifteen runs, one win six good track, race map doesn't read well.    
Profit Share PLUS: On pacer, in quinella six times from eight runs. E 1.75
  MINUS: Last run flat effort, one win five good tracks, wide barrier may have to work early.    
RISKY Docking (37 days, class rise), Hong Kong Captain (distance query on last run).
OUTCLASSED Gambaccini, Mattan, Lucky Paddy.
Quadrella Race# Moonee Valley 24 January 2015
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