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Moonee Valley Race 6: Campolina Handicap BM78 1200m

22/01/2016: If Radical hadn't been second up and jumping in distance he would have won last start but he was just short of that one crucial run, but third up he will give this race a fair crack. As stated in my race map I feel the field will spread out with the solid pace so I am not worried about his barrier. If we can trust Prima's run last start as a guide to this race with the 3kg claim he reads really well and the weights fans will be all over him at the top each way odds available around $8.00. He gets the perfect trail and if I were instructing the apprentice I would suggest "have a go from the 500m and try and get a break off Radical, to start with". With 51.5kg the chance for theft is available. Bullish Stock really needed the run when off 38 days finishing just behind Prima (there's only a kilo in the weight changes) and Craig Williams is brilliant enough to realise he needs to keep Prima in his sights. Swacadelic failed to run the longer distance in the Bagot Handicap and he basically showed the same the run prior at 2400m. It was three runs ago when he just beat the in form Danjeu (he would be short in this race) at this track and distance after being unlucky the run prior, again at this track and distance. The 3kg claim is a bonus.

Moonee Valley Race 6. Track Condition: GOOD (4). Weather: OCAST. RaceTime: AEDT 16:06, 23/01/2016

RACEMAPCampolina Handicap BM78 1200m
Front Runners (4) Now And Zen, (6) Use The Lot, (9) Alrouz.
On Pacers (3) Prima, (11) Bullish Stock.
Mid Fielders (1) Indexes, (5) Shockemohle, (8) Swacadelic, (15) Radical.
Get Back (2) Denoninator, (7) Wales, (12) Rebel Rising, (13) Rich River, (14) Tucanchoo.
PACE COMMENTS With Alrouz most likely to lead and either Now And Zen or Use The Lot as the two other front running possibilities I imagine Prima to receive a terrific run off the pace. Although Bullish Stock is drawn wide I suspect the field will string out and C Williams on Bullish Stock will slot in easily enough. With all the action out in front the pace will be solid enough for Swacadelic and Radical but Wales, way back with 60kg, is a concern.
CHANCESCampolina Handicap BM78 1200mOrderMargin
Radical PLUS: Three wins from ten starts career, one win from two distance runs, two good track wins, needed last run second up. A 0
  MINUS: Nil.    
Bullish Stock PLUS: Two wins from five good track runs, needed last start when off 38 days, Craig Williams won on him two runs ago. B 0.25
  MINUS: Nil.    
Prima PLUS: Yulong Baby form line good, 3kg claim helps with class rise, drawn to get terrific run. C 1
  MINUS: Class rise and distance.    
Swacadelic PLUS: Distance change advantageous, track and distance winner, 3 kg claim really helpful. D 1.25
  MINUS: Coming back 800 metres doesn't always suit some horses, will be mid field.    
Quadrella Race# Moonee Valley 23 January 2016
Moonee Valley 6 Campolina Handicap BM78 1200m
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EXOTICS Campolina Handicap BM78 1200m
Exacta

A: 5 12

B: 1 5 11 12

Trifecta

A: 5 12

B: 1 5 11 12

C: 1 2 5 7 9 11 12

First Four

A: 5 12

B: 1 5 11 12

C: 1 2 5 7 9 11 12

D: 1 2 5 7 9 11 12

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