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Moonee Valley Race 6: Ranvet Handicap 1200m

31/07/2015: Based on his more than respectable first mainland run, where he laid in after losing a plate, I am selecting Tasmanian Valiant Warrior. He has won six from nine and although he seems outclassed as a 78 rater there’s little doubt he will improve on that rating this campaign. From hereon I am struggling a fraction as although I have Nearest To Pin as the B selection he seems to struggle to finish off a race at this track. I am hoping his fitness will help for this event. Tawteen is having her first start against open class males from a wide barrier and I am a tad worried she might have to work too hard early and her fitness level first up over 1200m might find her out. She is also much better on dry tracks. Red Corner beat Rich Jack two runs ago and drops a handy 4.0kg on that run but had a 31 day break after the win. Sometimes that’s on purpose: other times it’s injury based. Either way he needed the run last start plus he was up in grade so be forgiving.

Moonee Valley Race 6. RaceTime: AEST 15:05, 01/08/2015

RACEMAPRanvet Handicap 1200m
Front Runners (1) Valiant Warrior, (3) Nearest To Pin, (8) Tawteen.
On Pacers (4) Flash Of Doubt, (10) Snippetee Bee.
Mid Fielders (5) Red Corner, (6) Superior Warrior, (7) Mighty Like.
Get Back (2) Neverending Valle, (9) The Thief, (11) Mr Good Cat.
PACE COMMENTS With Valiant Warrior and Nearest To Pin hunting through early and Tawteen needing to negate her barrier there will be enough pace early to ensure a solid pace. It wouldn’t surprise to see Flash Of Doubt push through as well for the lead but she will more than likely just sit off the pace. If you like a back marker don’t panic... they will have their chance.
CHANCESRanvet Handicap 1200mOrderMargin
Valiant Warrior PLUS: Three from four distance Tasmania, two from three wet, lost plate last run forgivable. A 0
  MINUS: Tasmanian form but only Melbourne run good.    
Nearest To Pin PLUS: Six from twenty one distance, four from thirteen wet, leader on pacer. B 0.5
  MINUS: Struggles this track though three seconds four runs.    
Tawteen PLUS: Track specialist three from four, two from three track and distance five from eleven good. C 0.75
  MINUS: Dry tracker, mare versus males first up wide barrier.    
Red Corner PLUS: Two from six distance, two wet track wins, four good track wins, needed last run off 31 days. D 1
  MINUS: Better dry tracks.    
Quadrella Race# Moonee Valley 1 August 2015
Moonee Valley 6 Ranvet Handicap 1200m
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