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Moonee Valley Race 6: Ranvet Handicap 1600m

27/11/2015: This is a race of value versus risk. I am selecting the favourite Club Star simply because he has the best form but with the possibility of a wide run and a slight distance doubt, I am unsure. I am going to be brave and risk him in the quadrella as he will be poor value. Clear Direction was beaten one length late last campaign at Group level in Adelaide by Atlantis Dream and Let's Make A Deal: both would be much shorter than the $16 available for Clear Direction. Golden Mane strung four wins together two campaigns ago, post Spring carnival time, and here he is again ready to fire off a run against a couple of big improvers in Malaguerra and Good Project. Forget his last campaign as he was being asked to win at distances without enough preparatory runs behind him and he just couldn't do it. Sadaqa is the handicapper's selection by 3 points and although I am wary about his distance ability he is at least double figure odds and on that basis slots in. Our Valdivia has Clear Direction form from two runs ago and he needed the first up run, which wasn't too bad at all. He drops 6kg on the effort and at double figure odds for the place is worth a saver bet to start with. I must admit this race makes me a tad nervous quadrella wise and in one set I will take the field.

Moonee Valley Race 6. Track Condition: GOOD (3). Weather: FINE. RaceTime: AEDT 16:05, 28/11/2015

RACEMAPRanvet Handicap 1600m
Front Runners (8) Dante's Finale, (9) Our Valdivia, (13) Wrotham Heath.
On Pacers (4) Slade De Cerisy, (6) Scelto, (10) Sadaqa, (12) Club Star.
Mid Fielders (5) Clear Direction, (7) Hero Master, (14) Bascule.
Get Back (1) Golden Mane, (2) Vintage Lad, (11) Belorum.
PACE COMMENTS Firstly, pace is not an issue in this race as I have slotted in eight horses as front runners and on pacers which means it will be on for young and old early. What the racemap has highlighted is the problem the well fancied favourite Club Star is going to face. There are around five runners on his inside that could force the rider to get cracking early or face being caught wide. Be wary about the price you take on Club Star.
CHANCESRanvet Handicap 1600mOrderMargin
Club Star PLUS: Heading for hat trick, lightly raced with three wins from ten runs, good track winner. A 0
  MINUS: Wide barrier (see race map), slight distance doubt but inconclusive at this stage of his career.    
Clear Direction PLUS: Four distance wins from eight attempts, five good track wins, respected stable when visiting Melbourne. B 0.5
  MINUS: Mare versus males, almost a month off since last run a query.    
Golden Mane PLUS: 3kg claim helpful, distance not an issue, Malaguerra and Good Project formline worth considering. C 1
  MINUS: No wins first or second up so might just need this run but unsure.    
Sadaqa PLUS: Three seconds from four track and distance runs, handles wet and dry tracks, handicappers pick. D 1.25
  MINUS: Five seconds at distance with just two wins from twelve runs.    
Our Valdivia PLUS: Four good track wins, 3kg claim allows big weight drop off needed first up run, gets good run. E 2
  MINUS: Might just need another run, difficult to assess.    
Quadrella Race# Moonee Valley 28 November 2015
Moonee Valley 6 Ranvet Handicap 1600m
Moonee Valley 7 City Jeep Handicap 1000m
Moonee Valley 8 Iprint Handicap 1500m
Moonee Valley 9 William Hill Handicap 1200m
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EXOTICS Ranvet Handicap 1600m
Exacta

A: 3 10

B: 1 3 10 11 12

Trifecta

A: 3 10

B: 1 3 10 11 12

C: 1 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

First Four

A: 3 10

B: 1 3 10 11 12

C: 1 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

D: 1 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

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