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Moonee Valley Race 7: Jeep Handicap 1600m

31/07/2015: After much soul searching I am making Raposo my A selection, but just. He can run terrific sectionals late in a race and if he doesn’t strike traffic he has the ability to storm home and win easily. I always have issues backing this type of horse and at $2.50ish he is poor value but he doesn't know his price. Vizhaka is no champion but he gets his chance based on his good first up run to Charmed Harmony as he will be near the lead and his jockey D Yendall understands pace, a critical factor for this event. Digitalism has had a break of 42 days, which bothers me, but on the assumption the track will be damp and his liking for Moonee Valley has him as my C selection. Sino Eagle has been a tad plain her last two runs but perhaps it’s the weight she has been carrying. It's a "last chance" reason as she is a good mare so let's give her a chance here.

Moonee Valley Race 7. RaceTime: AEST 15:45, 01/08/2015

RACEMAPJeep Handicap 1600m
Front Runners (9) Leveraction.
On Pacers (3) Pin Your Hopes, (7) Vizhaka, (12) Sino Eagle.
Mid Fielders (1) Count Of Limonade, (2)Ruscello, (6) Streets Away, (8) Digitalism.
Get Back (4) Raposo, (5) Lake Senentia, (10) Freshwater Storm, (11) Instrumentalist.
PACE COMMENTS With Leveraction likely to lead and with Sino Eagle possibly going hard early to try and cross Vizhaka and Pin Your Hopes there does seem to be a semblance of good pace early. However, that's not set in concrete and if positions are found early I suspect the pace will drop from around the 1200m start. This will cause the favourite Raposo some serious problems as he is going to have to run some super splits from the six hundred metres. The problem is he has been running strong splits recently but can he keep doing this?
CHANCESJeep Handicap 1600mOrderMargin
Raposo PLUS: Three from ten career, two from two quinella track and distance, won in wet, lightly raced. A 0
  MINUS: Gets back from inside barrier in average run race possibly.    
Vizhaka PLUS: Two heavy track wins, one from four track, distance no issue, races near lead. B 0.25
  MINUS: Nil.    
Digitalism PLUS: Track specialist three from six, two from three track and distance, six from seventeen in wet. C 0.5
  MINUS: 46 days break.    
Sino Eagle PLUS: One from one track and distance, 5.5kg weight drop, one from two in wet. D 1.5
  MINUS: Mare versus males, six wins good tracks.    
Quadrella Race# Moonee Valley 1 August 2015
Moonee Valley 6 Ranvet Handicap 1200m
Moonee Valley 7 Jeep Handicap 1600m
Moonee Valley 8 Sweeney Estate Agents Handicap 1200m
Moonee Valley 9 William Hill Handicap 2500m
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