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Moonee Valley Race 7: Wfa Jeep Australia Stakes 1200m

23/01/2015: The most difficult form factor the punter has to unravel is that of fitness. If Dissident is fit enough he will win this race but if he is being trained for the richer races in Sydney in mind more than this race he might be a track gallop or two short. For that reason I am selecting Tudor as he is fit having had one run under his belt with his good second to smart horse Fast Cash, a horse with form around Rich Enuff in the spring. He was taken on by Rough Justice most of the race and felt the run first up. It’s an issue of value. Dissident at around $1.85 is not value compared to $5.50 for Tudor. I strongly suspect C Williams will put the foot on the pedal five hundred or so meters from home and try and steal the race. If he weakens in the last fifty metres Dissident will nab him simply and purely on class. It Is Written absolutely loves Moonee Valley and he will run a place but whether it’s ahead of Hard Stride I am not sure. Back Tudor for the win and have saver exacta with the favourite in the A position.

Moonee Valley Race 7. RaceTime: AEDT 16:35, 24/01/2015

RACEMAP(Barriers)
Front Runners (4) Tudor, (8) Hard Stride.
On Pacers (6) It Is Written, (7) Dissident, (9) Audino.
Mid Fielders (3) Richie's Vibe.
Get Back (1) Blackie, (2) Smokin' Joey, (5) Mourinho.
PACE COMMENTS C Williams will ensure his mounts tests the fitness of Dissident by setting a solid pace. Hard Stride is no slouch early and will be close by or perhaps will ease a length or so off the lead. From the 500m it is “game on” as Tudor tries to slip away and those behind make their moves. Fairly simple race map.
CHANCESPlus and Minus FactorsOrderMargin
Tudor PLUS: Leads, fitter than favourite, form around Rich Enuff through Fast Cash. A 0
  MINUS: Class rise, last fifty metres this level.    
Dissident PLUS: Class act, weighted to win. B 0.25
  MINUS: Fitness query at 1200m first up, wide draw possible issue too.    
It Is Written PLUS: Six wins fifteen runs track and distance, placed last year. C 1.5
  MINUS: Class level for A position.    
Hard Stride PLUS: Fights hard, on pacer. D 2
  MINUS: four seconds track and distance, three wins twenty runs concerns with a sprinter.    
RISK HORSES 
RISKY Smokin' Joey (gets too far back for this), Mourinho (distance this level), Richie's Vibe (first up 147 days distance).
OUTCLASSED Blackie, Audino.
Quadrella Race# Moonee Valley 24 January 2015
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