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Moonee Valley Race 8: Alternate Railway Handicap BM90 1200m

23/01/2015: Apart from Race 7 my stating this race is tough is going to be a common thread for this week. It’s Soosa Rama’s track liking that has swayed me to tip her. In her first up run she peaked at about the 75 metre mark and held her ground until the last 30 metres when she was swamped. Improvement this run is a certainty. Sumakaray almost caused the boil over of the day second up and there is nothing to suggest an improvement third up won’t see her in the finish. The run by Scarlet Billows last start was strong finishing just off Search Squad who backed up well last Saturday finishing ahead of Reldas and behind Bishop’s Castle. That form is definitely strong enough for this race. Demandz has form around Scarlet Billows when they met at Mornington and although I am wary of the seven weeks break I would be foolish to leave Tycoon Tara out of calculations. Right on their heels I have a number of place chances (see the risk section) but a win by one of them would not surprise.

Moonee Valley Race 8. RaceTime: AEDT 17:15, 24/01/2015

RACEMAP(Barriers)
Front Runners (9) Lady Lakshmi, (13) Dashing Shadow, (14) Roll The Ignition.
On Pacers (2) So Assertive, (3) Cheeky Rozay, (4) Swing With Me, (11) Sumakaray, (12) Tycoon Tara, (15) Peninsula Dane.
Mid Fielders (5) Soosa Rama, (7) Demandz, (10) Longchamp Belle.
Get Back (1) Nadeem Lass, (6) Scarlet Billows, (8) Celeritas.
PACE COMMENTS A massive amount of action early in this race as those leaders and on pacers drawn well will try and fend off those drawn wide. It will be hectic to the first turn. With the solid pace envisaged the race should be truly run.
CHANCESPlus and Minus FactorsOrderMargin
Soosa Rama PLUS: Two from two track and distance, wilted last 75 metres last run improves, two from four distance. A 0
  MINUS: Races mid field.    
Sumakaray PLUS: Five wins eighteen career runs, three from nine distance, four good track wins, won here. B 0.25
  MINUS: Wide barrier concerns a fraction.    
Scarlet Billows PLUS: Won three from six fresh first up run improver, three from six distance, one from one track. C 1
  MINUS: Races well back early usually.    
Demandz PLUS: Softer M Valley surface big help, two from six distance, claim assists, three from nine career. D 1.25
  MINUS: One from six good tracks, gets back in run.    
Tycoon Tara PLUS: Three from seven career, three from four good. E 1.5
  MINUS: Wide barrier off seven weeks break for go forward type.    
RISK HORSES 
RISKY Lady Lakshmi (off 70 days, better second up), Nadeem Lass (always runs on, seldom wins), Peninsula Dane (44 starts career, last two runs flat), Long champ Belle (place chance on average career so far), Dashing Shadow (in career twilight, just four wins thirty eight runs), Swing With Me, Roll The Ignition and Oh So Assertive (place for sure, win in town questionable).
OUTCLASSED Celeritas, Cheeky Rozay.
Quadrella Race# Moonee Valley 24 January 2015
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