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Moonee Valley Race 8: Browns Sawdust & Shavings Handicap 1000m

22/01/2016: I have selected Beau Rada as I didn't think he handled the class rise at Flemington and now back to a BM84 event plus a return to Moonee Valley, reads well form wise. The $7 available looks fair odds to me. Shakespearean Lass simply either leads, or sits, off the pace (I hope it's the latter) thus receives the best chance to zip away on the home turn. What bothers me for the A position is the 31 days break but it is only 1000m so perhaps I am being a tad precious and consequently the price of $3 seems too tight. Closer to $4.50 is more like it for this "soldier of the betting ring". Mr Walker impressed me with his Warrnambool win and the astute Symon Wilde stable didn't miss the betting ring when he was backed from $6 into $4. Heavy backing at a last start is often a good sign from a stable if they rise in class. I have taken $15 as I think closer to $7 is more like it. Roll The Ignition has won first up at this distance in a weaker grade and she's right in this race as a top chance, especially if she receives a soft run in transit.

Moonee Valley Race 8. Track Condition: GOOD (4). Weather: OCAST. RaceTime: AEDT 17:26, 23/01/2016

RACEMAPBrowns Sawdust & Shavings Handicap 1000m
Front Runners (5) Roll The Ignition, (10) Shakespearean Lass.
On Pacers (2) Bawcatme, (6) Beau Rada, (8) Runsati, (11) Canali, (12) Trevinder.
Mid Fielders (7) Mr Walker.
Get Back (1) Pathways, (3) Danger Close, (4) I'm A Flying Star, (9) Ready Sunshine.
PACE COMMENTS Shakespearean Lass, or Roll The Ignition, should lead. It's just a matter of who jumps best as to what eventuates. It's also possible Canali will drag one out of the box and go for the lead, as he can at times, but if he does he will have to work to cross my front runners and that will seal his doom. Sitting off the pace is Beau Rada and with his terrific run he is certainly a leading contender in this race. The faster they go the better the chance for Mr Walker and Pathways, who for a get back type has a horrible barrier.
CHANCESBrowns Sawdust & Shavings Handicap 1000mOrderMargin
Beau Rada PLUS: Six distance wins, track and distance winner, three good track wins. A 0
  MINUS: Nil.    
Shakespearean Lass PLUS: Two distance wins, track winner, three good track wins, gets great run. B 0.5
  MINUS: 31 days break.    
Mr Walker PLUS: Strong win last run when backed, two wins from three at the distance, three good track wins. C 1
  MINUS: Class rise    
Roll The Ignition PLUS: Two wins at track from three attempts, first up winner twice from three runs. D 1.25
  MINUS: Two wins from ten good track runs indicates better in wet.    
Pathways PLUS: Won twice from three second up runs, unlucky first up, two wins at the track. E 1.75
  MINUS: Horrible draw for horse who gets back.    
Quadrella Race# Moonee Valley 23 January 2016
Moonee Valley 6 Campolina Handicap BM78 1200m
Moonee Valley 7 Jeep Australia Stakes 1200m
Moonee Valley 8 Browns Sawdust & Shavings Handicap 1000m
Moonee Valley 9 William Hill Handicap BM84 1600m
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EXOTICS Browns Sawdust & Shavings Handicap 1000m
Exacta

A: 5 7

B: 2 5 6 7 9

Trifecta

A: 5 7

B: 2 5 6 7 9

C: 1 2 5 6 7 9 11

First Four

A: 5 7

B: 2 5 6 7 9

C: 1 2 5 6 7 9 11

D: 1 2 5 6 7 9 11

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