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Moonee Valley Race 8: Iprint Handicap 1500m

27/11/2015: At my initial run through I had Sea Spray as fourth pick but once I had a good look I realized she has been running in stronger races. Being beaten 2.4 lengths at Group 2 level in the AV Kewney Stakes behind Wawail and Sabatini and 5 lengths in the Schweppes Oaks behind Delicacy and Fenway is terrific form for a race the equivalent of a BM79, even though it's rated as a BM90 (see the top weights rating). Ample On Offa has won five races from thirteen race starts and is a horse on the way up. The trainer, who is not well known, is making the effort and expense to tackle this race . She will be on the pace and challenging on the home turn. Winston Drive flopped in the wet last start but the run before was an excellent 2.2 lengths behind Durendal and I am expecting a follow up to that run. With a 1.5kg claim trainer DK Weir is ensuring this horse has every chance. Oh So Assertive's record on dry tracks is an excellent four wins from eleven runs and if the first up run behind last week's winner Berlutti and her narrow defeat last start means anything expect her to be in the finish.

Moonee Valley Race 8. Track Condition: GOOD (3). Weather: FINE. RaceTime: AEDT 17:25, 28/11/2015

RACEMAPIprint Handicap 1500m
Front Runners (6) Marli Magic.
On Pacers (4) Ample On Offa, (7) To Be Honest, (9) Oh So Assertive, (10) Fortrus Dancer, (11) Sari.
Mid Fielders (1) Bet You She Rocks, (3) Sea Spray.
Get Back (2) Melaleuca, (5) Young Nicola, (8) Quicksilver Lass, (12) Winston Drive.
PACE COMMENTS This is a bit of a strange race race map wise. I have Marli Magic to lead but there's no guarantee as she can miss the kick at times. If so this opens the race for a mad rush from the five on pacers and if that happens the pace is on. All told this means I am guessing but on probabilities let's assume the pace will be sensible and even though the back markers always have the job ahead of them perhaps the pace won't be tough for them.
CHANCESIprint Handicap 1500mOrderMargin
Sea Spray PLUS: Placed two from three runs at the track, has raced in tougher races so this race quite a class drop. A 0
  MINUS: Gets back.    
Ample On Offa PLUS: Interstate visitor is a positive factor, three good track wins, lightly raced improver. B 0.5
  MINUS: Nil.    
Winston Drive PLUS: Nice run to Durendal two runs ago, distance and track conditions no issue, 1.5 kg clain assists. C 0.75
  MINUS: Gets back.    
Oh So Assertive PLUS: Four good track wins, Berlutti run first up good, deduct his wet track runs and career record good. D 1
  MINUS: Nil.    
Quadrella Race# Moonee Valley 28 November 2015
Moonee Valley 6 Ranvet Handicap 1600m
Moonee Valley 7 City Jeep Handicap 1000m
Moonee Valley 8 Iprint Handicap 1500m
Moonee Valley 9 William Hill Handicap 1200m
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EXOTICS Iprint Handicap 1500m
Exacta

A: 3 6 10

B: 3 6 7 10

Trifecta

A: 3 6 7 10

B: 3 6 7 10

C: 3 6 7 8 9 10

First Four

A: 3 6 7 10

B: 3 6 7 10

C: 3 6 7 8 9 10

D: 3 6 7 8 9 10

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