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Moonee Valley Race 8: Sweeney Estate Agents Handicap 1500m

21/08/2015: I am assuming the track to be a fraction on the soft side therefore I am expecting Abbasso to improve from his last run where he was forced wide early. Just forgive the run and go back to two starts and he suddenly looks a top chance. Volontiers followed up his good Volcanic Ash run to win a low grade BM 78 last start showing a bit of ticker when it counted. Kenjorwood is the lone leader and they are always dangerous horses to bet against but I am worried about the six weeks break with 57.5kg. Supreme Warrior’s form looks all over the place but if you are forgiving (last start off 41 days, previous track run raced tightly, first up, poor run before break of 41 days) he actually looks a pretty good chance and you could be rewarded with a good priced winner. Letmedowngently is a mare versus the males but her statistics career wise so far are promising more wins and why not here in a fairly even field. She will race on the pace and is another at good odds worth at least saving on.

Moonee Valley Race 8. RaceTime: AEST 16:40, 22/08/2015

RACEMAPSweeney Estate Agents Handicap 1500m
Front Runners (10) Kenjorwood.
On Pacers (1) Upbeat, (6) Foundry, (7) Volontiers, (9) Letmedowngently.
Mid Fielders (2) Almoonqith, (3) Supreme Warrior, (4) Abbasso, (5) The United States, (11) Itsahymn.
Get Back (8) Lord Of Brazil, (12) Blackie.
PACE COMMENTS It certainly looks like Kenjorwood will be the lone leader and that type of runner is always hard to beat. However, what that also means is if the lone leader settles the pace could be suspect while the jockey attempts to conserve energy. The on pacers aren't the type to take up the cudgel against Kenjorwood hence I am very wary about the chances of the midfielders and especially the backmarkers as they will need to be able to sprint home. This is one of those races where you should be asking for a good price about any mid fielder you fancy. It all depends on Kenjorwood and how he can be ridden. Unfortunately we cannot know this until the race is in progress. A tricky race, for sure.
CHANCESSweeney Estate Agents Handicap 1500mOrderMargin
Abbasso PLUS: Four from thirteen wet tracks, wide early last run forgive, C Waller D Oliver combination. A 0
  MINUS: One from fifteen good tracks, gets back early at times.    
Volontiers PLUS: Lightly raced improver off Volcanic Ash formline, 1,5kg claim helpful. B 0.25
  MINUS: Class rise but improving.    
Kenjorwood PLUS: Lone leader, 2kg claim helps, distance ok. C 0.5
  MINUS: Forty two days break.    
Supreme Warrior PLUS: Four from thirteen wet tracks, two of last four runs forgivable, needed last run off 41 days, improves. D 1
  MINUS: Zero from five track but viable excuses last two.    
Letmedowngently PLUS: Five from ten career, one from one track, four from seven good, ok if soft, needed first up run. E 1.25
  MINUS: Mare versus males.    
Quadrella Race# Moonee Valley 22 August 2015
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