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Moonee Valley Race 8: William Hill Handicap 1200m

02/01/2016: I found a set of darts and hurled them onto the page with the runners from this race and they landed as per my selections! Well, not quite, but it feels a bit like it. Gosh, this race is a real raffle but here goes... I am no fan of Boomwaa but this is his race as he will get a soft run off the pace (I hope he doesn't lead but he could) and third up is right up his alley. Badajoz cut me out of a nice place bet on the fourth horse last start so he "owes" me a good performance in this race. He may miss out on a run but if me makes the cut this is a winnable race for him. There is nothing between Tykiato and Spirit Or Lager (scratched Wednesday for this race) with Tykiato considered a bit unlucky on their last meeting. Bel Seal has won first up in a BM70 at Sandown hence first up here shouldn't be an issue but he does have 59.5kg to carry and that could be the real problem in this event. Duibio won first up last preparation but he was off 66 days with a barrier trial win up his sleeve. That's nowhere near the case this time as he's been off 210 days and had just two soft trials. However he is lightly raced and perhaps the improvement factor will play it's part.

Moonee Valley Race 8. Track Condition: GOOD (3). Weather: FINE. RaceTime: AEDT 18:05, 02/01/2016

RACEMAPWilliam Hill Handicap 1200m
Front Runners (4) Judges, (14) Sirbible.
On Pacers (1) Boomwaa, (2) Tykiato, (9) Magnaro, (10) Spirit Or Lager, (11) Cool Maverick, (16) Kievann.
Mid Fielders (3) Duibio, (6) Bel Seal, (7) Badajoz, (8) Sir Mask.
Get Back (5) Clevadude, (13) Pin Your Hopes, (15) Domesday Warrior, (17) The Ruffian.
PACE COMMENTS With almost a guarantee that Sirbible will lead ala Fab Fevola, and with Judges likely to kick forward the race is set up for a solid pace. Perhaps Boomwaa will try and kick through as well so I wouldn't be worrying too much about this race as a race where pace might be a great issue.
CHANCESWilliam Hill Handicap 1200mOrderMargin
Boomwaa PLUS: Two wins from four third up runs, track and distance winner, gets top run off pace, 2kg claim never hurts. A 0
  MINUS: One win from ten runs at the distance but several excuse runs involved.    
Badajoz PLUS: Quick backup, give extra credit if Anteluccan runs well earlier, distance and track condition should be fine. B 0.25
  MINUS: First run this track.    
Tykiato PLUS: Unlucky behind Spirit Of Lager win, distance and good track seems no problem, lightly raced. C 0.5
  MINUS: Inside barrier an issue as doesn't always jump well.    
Spirit Or Lager PLUS: Duke Of Brunswick formline, good track no problems, winner at only start this track and distance, 3kg claim a bonus. D 0.75
  MINUS: Thirty four day break unless on purpose.    
Bel Seal PLUS: Two wins from five first up runs, has Burning Front formline, drawn to get a soft run. E 1.25
  MINUS: Huge weight first up.    
Duibio PLUS: Two good track wins from four runs, first up winner last campaign, lightly raced improver who handles the distance. F 1.75
  MINUS: Off 210 days break with no barrier trial win as opposed to last win.    
       
Quadrella Race# Moonee Valley 2 January 2016
Moonee Valley 5 VOBIS Gold Carat 1200m
Moonee Valley 6 WeDrive.com.au Handicap 2040m
Moonee Valley 7 City Jeep Handicap 2500m
Moonee Valley 8 William Hill Handicap 1200m
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EXOTICS William Hill Handicap 1200m
Exacta

A: 4 9 14 17

B: 4 9 14 17

Trifecta

A: 4 9 14 17

B: 4 9 14 17

C: 1 3 4 7 9 12 13 14 17

First Four

A: 4 9 14 17

B: 4 9 14 17

C: 1 3 4 7 9 12 13 14 17

D: 1 3 4 7 9 12 13 14 17

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